Austin Peay

The Austin Peay Governors look to be Virginia’s first true cupcake of the season. While the UNC-G Spartans were one of the better mid-majors out there, Austin Peay is just in this game for the NIT Tip-Off event’s payday. But that doesn’t mean the game isn’t interesting for a couple of reasons, and Austin Peay didn’t exactly roll over for solid SEC program Vanderbilt last week.

Game Details:

Date/Time: Monday, November 13th, 7:00 PM EST
Location: John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA
TV: ACCN / WatchESPN

What ‘They’ Say

Depth Chart:

Starters

Key Reserves

 * Stats from 2016-17 season

The ABC’s of AP:

A) Expectations were low for this year. The Governors were not a good team last year, finishing the year 11-19, 7-9 in the Ohio Valley conference, and ranked #296 nationally by KenPom. They lost two key seniors to graduation, which was bad enough (G John Murray and F Kenny Jones, 17 and 14.3 ppg respectively). But bad turned to worse when star point guard Josh Robinson (20.3 ppg, 3.5 apg), got arrested and subsequently kicked off the team, and wing Jared Savage (10.3 ppg) transferred. What’s left are low-usage returners and a couple of transfers and low ranked freshmen, being asked to gel and step up quickly. The Governors replaced their head coach with Matt Figger, who most recently was an assistant at South Carolina, where he worked for the defense-minded Frank Martin en route to a Final Four last year.

B) The star of the newcomers is freshman wing Terry Taylor, who’s adapted to the college game very quickly, at least on the offensive end.  He first showed out in Austin Peay’s exhibition last week against Sewanee, scoring 24 points on a perfect 9-for-9 shooting and grabbing 12 rebounds. Against Vanderbilt on Friday, he was Austin Peay’s only double digit scorer, dropping 15 points on 10 attempts, getting them a variety of ways, at the rim, from deep, and at the FT line. 

C) While expected of a lower tier team, it’s worth mentioning that this is a small team. JUCO transfer Averyl Ugba, who starred at central VA’s Richard Bland College after starting his career at Grambling State, is the only true big man in AP’s starting lineup, and he struggled against Vanderbilt’s big lineup (only 3 rebounds, but 4 TOs). They’ll bring true freshman Ivan Cucak off the bench, a traditional 7’0″ center, though in his 10 minutes against Vanderbilt, his one basket was offset by a turnover and 2 quick fouls. We have no excuse not to dominate the glass, especially on the defensive end.

Their season to date:

0-1. Lost season opener to Vanderbilt 73-54. 

Keys to getting the win:

1) Fix the turnover issue. UNC-G kept themselves in the game at Virginia with offensive rebounds and uncharacteristic ball pressure. The Governors similarly used ball pressure to keep the margin against Vanderbilt respectable, forcing turnovers on 15 of the Commodore’s 67 possessions (22%). We are working in a grad transfer unfamiliar with our systems, a sophomore PG who missed a lot of the preseason with an injury, and a RS freshman wing getting his feet under him. The ball security issue is understandable, but nonetheless concerning. Expect Austin Peay to work to exploit this. Thankfully the turnovers they created against Vandy weren’t live ball variety steals leading to fast break points, but ball protection should help us to a wide margin of victory.

2) Resist the urge to go small to match them. If ever there was a game to get our post players into an offensive rhythm, it’s this one. Good ball movement should put our posts into excellent position for clean finishes at the rim. But don’t be afraid to let Wilkins and Mamadi cover down against their small ball lineup. Let Hall and Hunter work on star wing Taylor, and Wilkins/Diakite should be effective enough against forward Chris Portor-Bunton, who was AP’s lowest-usage starter in their opener. We should impose our lineup’s strengths on them, not the other way around. Our bigs should be able to use their size and timing to effectively protect the rim, holding the Governors to under 40% shooting from 2. But only if we stay 2-big.

3) Beat their pressure and points should be easy to get at the rim. There are no rim protectors on AP’s depth chart, and with 5 newcomers in their top 9, including 3 freshmen, and a new coach to boot, we shouldn’t expect them to play really disciplined assignment defense. Shoot enough 3’s, opportunistically, to keep their perimeter defenders honest, but otherwise both our guards and our bigs should be focused on scoring at the rim. Feed the posts, cut downhill off picks, and force them to foul you in the paint. Don’t overthink this one.

Predictions:

The question here isn’t will we win. It’s the final margin, and it’s whether we get good looks at Huff and Anthony, that are up in the air. I’m hopeful that whatever caused the two freshmen DNP’s on Friday are in the rearview mirror (matchups? readiness? discipline?), and both get to hit the floor with a long enough rope to make a few mistakes and play through them. Frankly there’s no reason the walk-ons shouldn’t be in after the final media timeout.

Hoos Win: 72-38.