Virginia Commonwealth Rams

The Rams have been one of the A-10’s best teams for years now, and are coming off another NCAA Tournament season. But once again they were the launching pad for a coach to jump to a power conference, as Will Wade left for LSU in the offseason. What does this year’s Rams squad have in store?

Game Details:

Date/Time: Friday, November 17th, 4:00 PM EST
Location: Seigel Center, Richmond, VA
TV: CBS Sports Network

What ‘They’ Say

Vegas: Virginia -7, O/U 132 – Equates to an 70-62 UVA win.
TAPE: Ranks VCU #71 – Predicts a 69-62 UVA win, 76% confidence
KenPom: Ranks VCU #88 – Predicts a 71-63 UVA win, 75% confidence

 

Depth Chart:

Starters

PG #10 Jonathan Williams, 6-1 200, SR
29 mpg, 12.5 ppg, 6.5 apg, 67% 3P%
SG #13 Malik Crowfield, 6-4 195, SO
28 mpg, 7.5 ppg, 3 apg, 44% 3P%
SF #0 De’Riante Jenkins, 6-5 195, SO
24 mpg, 10 ppg, 4.5 apg, 33% 3P%
PF #4 Justin Tillman, 6-8 220, SR
20.5 mpg, 20.5 ppg, 9 rpg, 74% FG%
C #21 Khris Lane, 6-7 245, SR
21.5 mpg, 14 ppg, 6 rpg, 58% FG%

Key Reserves

PG

#25 Tyler Maye, 6-1 175, FR
9 mpg, 1 ppg, 1.5 apg, 0% 3P%
SF #11 Issac Vann, 6-6 210, SO
25.5 mpg, 12 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 37% FG%
F  #1 Mike’l Simms, 6-5 220, SO
11.5 mpg, 2.5 ppg, 0.5 apg, 0% 3P%
C #5 Sean Mobley, 6-8 240, FR
12.5 mpg, 7.5 ppg, 1 rpg, 60% FG%

The ABC’s of VCU:

A) They lost 6 of their top 8 from last year. They saw five senior contributors graduate: PG JeQuan Lewis (15.2 ppg, 4.5 apg), PF Mo Alie-Cox (9.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.0 bpg), SG Doug Brooks (5.6 ppg), SF Jordan Burgess (4.9 ppg), and C Ahmed Hamdy (5.9 ppg). On top of that, breakout freshman SG Samir Doughty (9.0 ppg) took advantage of the coaching change to transfer to Auburn. That leaves only two key contributors from last year’s 26-win squad: F Justin Tillman (12.2 ppg, 8.7 rpg) and PG Jonathan Williams (8.3 ppg).

The newcomers bring a lot of question marks with them. Mike Rhoades is the Rams’ third coach in the last four years, as the former Shaka Smart assistant returns to Richmond after three years at Rice. With only two rotation players back from last year, he’s leaning on two heretofore low-usage sophomores, two true freshmen, one JUCO transfer (Simms), a traditional transfer from Maine (Vann) and a grad transfer from Longwood (Khris Lane) to form a cohesive rotation.

B) It’s TBD just how committed to the press they’ll be this year. VCU’s first two games vs bottom feeders revealed very little about their identity. The press didn’t factor into their 29 point Grambling State victory, though they did force 16 turnovers, 10 of those live ball steals, in their North Florida win. Rhoades didn’t press a ton at Rice last year, though that may have been more about personnel. The Hoos will have to be prepared for it regardless; we’ve had success scoring fast off a broken press in recent years and should be ready to exploit that again tonight.

C) This looks to be an unusually competent three point shooting team for VCU, who shot only 33% as a team last year, but draining 40% through two games. Vann was a 40+% 3 point shooter at Maine, Crowfield is a gunner off the bench (9 of his 11 shots this year have been 3PAs, shooting 44%), and Tillman and Lane are both showing off stretch-4 bonafides, hitting a combined 4-7 so far this year from the post spots. Even Williams, who was a woeful 1-17 all of last year, is 2-4 from deep so far this season. Closeouts are going to be key.

Their season to date:

VCU is 2-0 on the season, having opened the year with a 94-65 win over Grambling State and a 95-85 win over North Florida, both at home. 

Keys to getting the win:

1) Go to the rim on the press, go to the rim in the half court. VCU doesn’t face teams with our size often. Their starters top out at 6’7″, and behind them are three 6’8″ freshmen of questionable readiness. Salt, Mamadi, and Huff will have clear size/length advantages over them, and Wilkins and Hunter have the advantage in experience and athleticism over all except maybe Tillman. None of their bigs are much for shot blocking, and a downhill, paint-oriented offense out of the gate for the Hoos could open up the perimeter for a second half shooting clinic.

2) Force them to grind out half court sets. VCU has been taking advantage of their weak schedule so far to run and gun, with an average offensive possession length of 14.4 seconds, which is inside the top 15% nationally. They haven’t been forced to execute a set offense yet this year, and I expect that asking them to do so will be difficult on such a young, inexperienced (at least together) squad. The length and energy of our defense should frustrate the Rams and potentially cause turnovers and desperation shots. Let the pack-line force Tillman to give the ball up or work from the perimeter, and lets see if their offensive sets are ready for prime time.

3) Take their crowd out of it early. Despite the odd tip time, VCU fans have had this one circled on their calendar and will be out in force, their biggest crowd of the year save for maybe the cross-town UR game. The Seigel Center has a reputation as a tough venue due to VCU’s rabid fans, and in what expects to be a rebuilding year for the Rams, a win over an ACC squad is going to be important for their tournament bubble resume. This game calls for a hot start from the Hoos to quiet the crowd, which may be a tall order for our defense-oriented starting lineup, where only Hall and Guy have started the year hot on O. But break the pressure and force VCU’s small lineup to defend in the half court and we should be able to use our size advantage to steadily build an early lead and quiet the crowd. There will inevitably be a late run that brings the Rams crowd back into it that we’ll have to stem, but it’ll be a lot easier to do if we don’t let their young squad get too confident by staying in the game the first 10 minutes or so.

Predictions:

VCU is going to go as far as the trio of Williams, Tillman, and Lane will take them. Their emphasis this year appears to be on floor spacing leading to early, open looks, but if we’re disciplined getting back and setting up, we should be able to disrupt that spacing and ball movement. We have the ball handlers to break the pressure; Jerome, Guy, Johnson, and Hall all have point or combo skill sets, it’s just about being coached well enough to make smart choices. We trust that Tony can supply that coaching. I think this is a battle through the first half, but somewhere early in the second half Virginia goes on a run that breaks it open and VCU fails to have one last comeback in them.

Hoos win – 69-60.