Boston College Eagles

BC entered this season looking to take that proverbial next step from rebuilding to ‘postseason eligible.’ The non-conference performance was a little underwhelming, but a win over Duke suddenly has them buzzing. Can they score yet another upset, this time on the road?

Game Details:

Date/Time: Saturday, December 30th, 2:00 PM EST
Location: John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA
TV: WatchESPN

What ‘They’ Say

Vegas: Virginia -15.5, O/U 128.5
TAPE: Ranks BC #96, predicts a 69-51 UVA win, 96% confidence
KenPom: Ranks BC #86, predicts a 68-53 UVA win, 92% confidence

 

Depth Chart:

Starters

PG #0 Ky Bowman, 6-1 188, SO
36.2 mpg, 16.6 ppg, 5.4 apg, 32% 3P%
SG #1 Jerome Robinson, 6-6 191, JR 
33.5 mpg, 16.5 ppg, 3.2 apg, 46% 3P% 
SF #25 Jordan Chatman, 6-5 200, JR 
34.3 mpg, 14.3 ppg, 0.9 apg, 43% 3P% 
PF #41 Steffon Mitchell, 6-8 222, FR 
29.7 mpg, 6.2 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 41% FG% 
C #21 Nik Popovic, 6-11 243, SO 
23.4 mpg, 9.3 ppg, 6 rpg, 51% FG% 

Key Reserves

G

#2 Avery Wilson, 6-3 220, FR
3.6 mpg, 1.7 ppg, 0.1 apg, 100% 3P%
F #11 Vin Baker Jr., 6-7 177, FR 
9.1 mpg, 1.7 ppg, 0.9 rpg, 33% FG% 
F/C  #12 Johncarlos Reyes, 6-10 224, SO 
12.1 mpg, 3.7 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 59% FG% 
F/C #13 Luka Kraljevic, 6-10 229, FR 
6.3 mpg, 1.6 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 47% FG% 

 

The ABC’s of BC:

A) The starting backcourt has been carrying this team. We expected the starting pairing of Ky Bowman and Jerome Robinson would prove effective. They’ve lived up to expectations. Bowman is BC’s highest usage player, scoring 16.6 ppg and dishing 5.4 assists a night, while being very effective in the lane. Robinson is also prolific, 16.5 points, 3.2 assists a night with an enviable 46% from long range. He was a perfect 5-5 from 3 against Duke. The surprise has been Jordan Chatman, who’s scoring 14 points on 43% 3-point shooting as well, so the starting guards are all weapons that must be respected. The depth behind them is nearly non-existant, so expect each of these to play at least 35 minutes, maybe all 40 if the game is close.

B) Deontae Hawkins left big shoes to fill. The redshirt senior big man was averaging over 12 points and 9 rebounds a game when he went down for the year with a knee injury (he may still be eligible for a do-over senior year a la Mike Scott). That leaves BC with a rotation of five underclassmen to eat up minutes at the 4 and 5. Popovic has been solid scoring on the blocks, though is struggling to play long stretches. Mitchell has been okay on the glass but is raw when the ball is in his hands on offense. None of the reserves are standing out, even against lesser competition. Without Hawkins, BC’s margin for error in the post is very slim.

C) BC has struggled away from home. The Eagles have left Chestnut Hill five times this year, and the only wins they’ve found were over LaSalle (KenPom #141) and Hartford (KenPom #322). Their shooting has been ice cold in the three losses, 4-22 from 3 at Nebraska, 5-23 at Providence, and 4-16 vs Texas Tech. Facing Virginia’s solid 3P% defense (30.2%) is going to be a tall task for BC’s guards.

Their season to date:

Boston College is 10-3 on the year. They’ve lost at Providence, at Nebraska, and to Texas Tech (neutral). Their signature win is a home upset over Duke. They’re on a five-game winning streak, otherwise against sub-200 competition. 

Keys to getting the win:

1) Control the glass. BC has done a lot of its damage this year on second chance points; their 35.1% offensive rebounding percentage is one of the best in the country. Even without Hawkins, they’re doing well with Popovic and Mitchell hitting the boards. They grabbed 10 against Duke, 16 against Providence. Our disciplined box outs should be enough to take them out their groove here. Similarly, they’ve done well on the defensive glass but most of that’s been against subpar competition. Duke grabbed 13 offensive boards, so the opportunities are there to do some damage if we’re persistent.

2) Get to the rim. Boston College wants teams to shoot contested threes (sound familiar?), Their perimeter defense is one of their few strengths on that end, holding teams to only 31.6%. They’ve been using zones to goad teams into taking a ton of 3’s against them; almost half of their opponents’ shots (43%) are from deep, and it’s been keeping them in games. The key to beating zone teams isn’t to bomb away, it’s to break the zone down, and it’s going to be critical that the Hoos use good interior passing to do just that. This goes double when Popovic is on the bench, as both his backups (Kraljevic and Reyes) are foul prone. 

3) Outlast them. They’re 331st nationally in bench minutes, only a combined 46 minutes a night go to reserves, and that’s including blowouts over bad teams. In tight games, the starters are playing almost the entire game. In last week’s OT win over Richmond, the bench logged a combined 27 minutes (12%). Bowman and Chatman played all 45 minutes. The stats were similar for the Duke game. We have to grind them down over these 40 minutes, don’t let them rest (though the zone defense is designed to allow that), make them work on offense, so that we can separate in the second half.

Predictions:

This is a better BC team than we’re accustomed to. This team should win a half dozen ACC games this year and make the NIT, and that’s a respectable step towards relevancy for the Eagles (who are playing without any seniors). But I’m just not convinced they can shoot well enough away from home to stay in this, and Tony’s had a long break to work on attacking their zone. If we can be patient with our passes, break their zone down, then this game should be comfortable towards the end. 

Hoos Win – 68-55