Louisville Cardinals – ACCT Quarterfinals

Virginia will take the floor in the ACC Tournament to find a revenge-minded Cardinals squad licking their chops. Virginia scored the freak comeback of the year in Louisville last week; will they be able to complete the sweep today?

Game Details:

Date/Time: Thursday, March 8th, 12:00 Eastern
Location: Barclay’s Center, Brooklyn NY
TV: ESPN

What ‘They’ Say

Depth Chart:

Starters

Key Reserves

The ABC’s of UL:

A) This is very quietly a top 3-point shooting team. Now, it’s worth qualifying that this is on pretty low volume, as they’re only taking 35% of their shots from 3 (11th in the ACC), but the shots they are taking are going in reliably, an impressive 38.2% as a team. Senior PG Snider has really stepped up here this year; he was shooting 34% in non-conference play, but 46% in ACC play on steady volume. Reserve guard Ryan McMahon is a reliable gunner (60 of his 77 shots in ACC play are from deep) shooting 42%, and Perry is chipping in 43% on low volume. Adel is knocking down a reliable 35%. The only weak links are VJ King, who’s been a cold 8/37 (22%) in ACC play this year., and reserve wing Sutton (33% in ACC play). Their bigs aren’t stretch threats, but the increased minutes in a small lineup have brought a shift to more reliance on the deep ball. They took 27 3PAs in their win over VT (hitting 12 for 44%), hit 6 of 15 (40%) against us last week, and road a 10 of 16 (62%) performance to beat FSU, so our 1-4 are going to have to be vigilant defending the perimeter against their versatile shooting lineup, especially when the reserve gunners hit the floor (McMahon is 4/6 against UVA this year). 

B) Ray Spalding is on a tear. The Junior big man has become one of the most consistent low-post threats in the ACC. He’s scored in double digits in 10 of the last 11 games (and 8 points in the 11th, a blowout win over Pitt where he rested most of the game), hitting 18 against FSU, and going for 16 points and 9 boards against UVA last week. He’s Top 10 in the ACC in both OR% (12.3%) and DR% (21.6%), and 12th in Block % (4.9%). He’s also Top 10 in FG%, hitting on 59% in ACC play (all from 2). At 6-10, 225 lb, he’s a lean, athletic mismatch over both Salt and Wilkins, and Louisville’s guards have been learning more and more to find the big man as much as they can. It’s imperative that Salt, Wilkins, and Diakite find a way to deny Spalding the ball, to force him off the blocks, or to at a minimum challenge his shots without fouling, for Virginia to be in a good position to win.

C) This is a hungry, veteran squad. These upperclassmen have been through a lot. They all arrived after Louisville’s last title. Since they’ve hit campus, they’ve seen a prostitute recruiting scandal lead to the cancellation of their 2016 postseason, a pay-for-play recruiting scandal get their coach canned in 2017, and their banners lowered in 2018. They’re over it, and want to make this season about them, not about the sins of past coaches and players. Teams led by veteran players are always dangerous (look at Devon, Salt, and Wilkins), and Louisville starts two seniors and two juniors who want this team off the Bubble, into the Dance, and stamp their careers with one last good postseason. Beating Virginia, to them, is a critical part of that plan.

Their season to date:

Louisville is 20-12 on the year, and went 9-9 in ACC play. Their best wins are over VT (twice) and FSU (twice). They are 0-2 against Virginia this year, by a combined 11 points. They beat FSU 82-74 in their first ACCT game. 

Keys to getting the win:

1) Go small when Louisville does. Louisville will likely start with a 2-big lineup, with Spalding and Mahmoud at the 4 and 5. But that won’t last for long, as the two of them only shared the floor for 13 minutes against FSU, and instead Louisville played Adel or Sutton at the 4 for 27 of 40 minutes. Similarly against us last week, UL went two-big for only 13 minutes, and small for the rest. These simply aren’t good matchups for our Salt-Wilkins pairings, and Deng Adel was able to do a lot of damage, 18 points and 4 assists, using his quickness advantage to both get to the rim, draw fouls, and to create for others. If Guy and/or Nigel are able to give us productive minutes at the 1 and 2, enough so that we can deploy Hunter primarily at the 4, then we should look to sub him in to defend Adel any time Louisville subs for a small lineup.

2) Keep them off the FT line. Louisville has supplemented its offense all season with regular trips to the FT line. They’re 3rd in the ACC in drawing attempts, led by hard charging wings King and Adel and traditional power post Spalding. In their win over VT they shot 21 FTAs. In a loss to UNC, they shot 22. It was 26 apiece when hosting Syracuse and FSU 3 weeks ago. It was a difference maker in our matchups against them this year… they shot 29(!) FTAs in the Yum! Center last week (led by Spalding’s 9 and Adel’s 8), but when we faced them in January, we allowed them only 6 trips to the line. Our defenders have to be cognizant that Louisville is looking for contact, so a lot of discipline is required to defend legally, avoid unnecessary reaches or ill-advised block attempts, and force them to actually make contested buckets.

3) Use midrange touches to set up the offense. This is obviously a routine point we’ve been hitting since the VT loss, but one we recommended ahead of each of the Louisville matchups as well. Louisville’s guards will be focused on perimeter denial and ball-hawking. Their posts are focused on rim protection (10 blocks against FSU). That means that the 8-15′ range of the floor is where the offense needs to operate out of. Get there off the dribble or off the pass and react to the defense. If it collapses from the perimeter, kick to a shooter. If the rim protection comes out, dump to a cutter at the rim. If the help doesn’t come, launch the midrange J or floater in rhythm. The Hoos have been doing an outstanding job in recent weeks of being deliberate in touching the post on most possessions, and the offense has looked much improved as a result. Louisville, especially given how they defend, is no different. 

Bonus) Weather the Storm. Louisville is going to come out of the gate as motivated as they’ve ever been. Part of it is feeling they may need this upset to punch their Dance ticket. Part of it is bitterness over how we stole the game last week. And after almost blowing out FSU, they feel confident, especially since they’ve now played 40 minutes on these rims and gotten comfortable in the venue. If Virginia isn’t ready to take punches early, and be ready to punch right back, they could once again find themselves in catch-up mode, and can’t count on being able to win another from behind. Virginia needs find a way to get to the second media timeout still effectively knotted up with the Cards, and let the game fall into a rhythm after that.

Predictions:

FSU did us no favors by rolling over quickly in this one, down 19 at halftime and 26 at one point in the 2nd half. While the Noles did make a garbage time run to make the score respectable, nevertheless the Cards were able to go 10 deep and prevent too much wear and tear on the starters before a 22-hour turnaround. Meanwhile, Virginia is still playing somewhat hobbled, with Kyle Guy nursing a minor MCL sprain and a bulging disc, Isaiah Wilkins continuing to play through a sore lower back, and DeAndre Hunter (ankle sprain) and Ty Jerome (sprained thumb, sore hips) on the back side of their own injury issues. 

From a talent perspective, Louisville is much better than the ACC’s 9th seed. They’re probably Top 4 in terms of upside, with talented veterans at multiple positions. Quen Snider, Deng Adel, Anas Mahmoud, and Ray Spalding are a veteran core that most ACC coaches would kill to have, and they know this is effectively their last ride. Mahmoud and Snider graduate soon. Juniors Adel and Spalding may look at the NBA as an escape hatch given the possibility (a) UL gets sanctioned over the Brian Bowen recruiting scandal and/or (b) changes coaches yet again. As such, they’re playing every game as if its their last, and they’re the most dangerous 9-seed the ACCT has seen in a long time. 

But at the end of the day, I have to respect 17-1. Louisville was able to win a track meet yesterday against one of the worst-coached teams in the ACC (sorry, Leonard Hamilton, but you know you kinda suck). It’s going to be a violent adjustment against Virginia’s Swiss watch of a defense. If we’re playing healthy and confident, then Louisville is still a team we should beat. It may not be a big margin of victory, and it way not be pretty, but we just have to play even for the first 10 minutes or so, weather the Cards’ early burst of emotion and intensity, then settle in to grind them down over the final 30 minutes.

Hoos Win – 62-58