North Carolina Tar Heels – ACCT Finals

Virginia meets UNC in the ACC Tournament Finals for the second time in the last year three years. Virginia has had UNC’s number in the regular season, but is 0-2 against them in ACCT play in the Bennett era. Is this the year the Hoos flip the script?

Game Details:

Date/Time: Saturday, March 10th, 8:30 PM Eastern
Location: Barclay’s Center, Brooklyn, NY
TV: ESPN

What ‘They’ Say

Depth Chart:

Starters

Key Reserves

The ABC’s of UNC:

A) Theo Pinson is finally tapping into his potential. The former 5-star wing, now a senior, had largely underwhelmed in his career relative to his ranking. He had a glue guy rep, but wasn’t getting much done on the offensive end, spending years in Justin Jackson’s shadow. This year started out cool for him as well, scoring in double figures in only 4 of UNC’s first 16 games, despite starting them all. That included a quiet 4 point outing in the loss at JPJ. But he’s found a groove lately, where he had an 8 game double digit scoring streak snapped last night vs Duke. He was the MVP in their win over Miami, going for 25 points and 11 rebounds. As Duke focused on him last night, he used that extra attention to set others up instead, dishing 7 assists. In a loss to Miami two weeks ago he had 11 assists, so he’s truly multi-faceted. His emergence adds a new dimension to UNC’s attack.

B) They’re fully committed to the small lineup. Roy is done trying to fit a square peg into a round hole with this roster. His true big men are all freshmen, and only Garrison Brooks is earning the coach’s trust so far. Instead, Roy’s putting his best 5 out there, and the 4 and 5 in this scenario are a long wing in Junior Grad Transfer Cam Johnson and a 6-8 stretch 4 hustle guy in Luke Maye. Part of our recent string of success against UNC has been their reliance on a traditional two-big lineup, which the Pack Line effectively swallows up. UNC’s small lineup, however, spaces the floor against us and puts our traditional posts like Jack Salt and Isaiah Wilkins at a disadvantage, trying to defend in space. Oh, and even though they’re small, they still led the ACC in Offensive Rebounding (O-Reb% of 40.5%) and were 5th in Defensive Rebounding. 

C) Joel Berry is still dangerous. The senior PG hasn’t dazzled quite like he did when surrounded by a championship roster last year, his shooting percentages are down across the board as he shoulders a greater load, but he’s getting it done when he has to. He scored 13 points and added 6 assists and 3 steals in beating Duke last night. He went for 30 points against Miami a few weeks ago, and topped 20 points 7 times in ACC play. He was UNC’s best player in their January loss at JPJ, scoring 17 and grabbing 8 boards. He’s also protecting the ball, leading UNC to the ACC’s 2nd lowest offensive turnover rate.

Their season to date:

UNC is 25-10, and went 11-7 in ACC play this year. They have big wins over Duke (twice), Clemson, Ohio State, and Michigan, with only one bad loss to Wofford in the non-conference. To reach the ACCT Finals, they’ve beaten Syracuse, Miami, and Duke. 

Keys to getting the win:

1) Limit the damage from Maye and Johnson. Stretch bigs can be our kryptonite, and UNC will roll out two of them. Maye and Johnson are 2 of UNC’s top 3 scorers in ACC play, totalling over 30 ppg between them. Salt’s going to be a bad matchup for them at the tip, so Tony should be looking to sub in Hunter or at least Mamadi in for Salt at the first media timeout. Mamadi has been really foul prone of late, though, at least 3 fouls in 6 of his last 7 games despite rarely logging long minutes, and trying to guard Maye and Johnson in space is a recipe for disaster for him. Let’s hope Wilkins shakes off his fatigue to give us 25 good minutes.

2) Control the defensive glass. This is the ACC’s best offensive rebounding team, and if there was one thing they did right at JPJ in January, it was this, grabbing 19 offensive boards to keep them in the game. We’ve tightened this up in the back half of conference play, but we also haven’t seen a team-effort rebounding attack like this in a while. This means big men and guards alike have to body up Carolina as soon as shots go up, whether in the half-court or especially in transition. In losses to Miami and Duke in February, they were held to 8 and 11 O-Reb’s respectively, and at our lower possession rate, we should aim to hold them to 10.

3) Find our three point stroke. UNC’s guards do a poor job shutting down the three point line. They’re the second worst team in the ACC in defending 3’s, allowing opponents to shooting almost 40% from deep. But when opponents are off, such as in the ACCT Quarters and Semis (Miami went 6 of 19 for 32%, Duke went 6 of 23 for 26%), the Tar Heels are far more likely to win. Virginia had shot well from deep in Brooklyn this year, 48% against Vandy, 41% against URI, and 39% against Louisville, before going cold against Clemson last night (5 of 18 for 28%). The Hoos can’t afford another cold shooting night.

Predictions:

This should be a battle. Virginia did not look energetic down the stretch last night, Clemson wearing down Virginia’s roster to get them in foul trouble and make the game close at the end. Carolina has played an extra game by virtue of their 6 seed, and had to battle into the night last night to beat archrival Duke. Expect this to often be a sloppy game, with missed rebounding assignments, turnovers, and the advantage should go to whoever is still executing sharply down the stretch. I expect Virginia to control the pace as they usually do in these matchups, but Carolina to come in ready to play half-court ball, counting on 2nd chance points to keep them in it. Virginia will similarly have to stay aggressive against UNC’s defense, no passively moving the ball around the perimeter, and instead forcing breakdowns in the second half as Carolina wears down.

In the end, I think the Hoos finally get that first Bennett-era win against UNC in the postseason, but don’t expect it to be a pretty one.

Hoos Win – 66-62