Dayton (B4A) Flyers

After opening the season with four straight small-conference schools, Virginia finally gets to take a step up in competition in its second game in the Bahamas. Dayton started their trip with a solid upset of Butler; are they ready to knock off another Power-5 foe in Virginia?

Game Details:

What ‘They’ Say

Depth Chart:

The ABC’s of Dayton (B4A):

A) They’re not a 3-point shooting team. They’re in the bottom 10% nationally in their 3P attempt rate, only taking about 30% of their shots from behind the arc (the national average is close to 40%), and making matters worse is that they’re rarely making the ones they do take. As a team they make only 30.9% of their long balls. Neither of their big men are stretch threats, no attempts on the season. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t a couple of shooters to watch out for. PG Jalen Crutcher is 8-18 (44%) on the year and F Ryan Mikesell is 6-11 (55%).

B) They’ve got a young backcourt. Dayton is starting a pair of sophomores at their guard spots, kids who arrived in Ohio with coach Grant last offseason. Now, as we saw with Ty and Kyle last year, two starting sophomores can win a lot of games, but what about Crutcher and Davis? PG Crutcher played 30 minutes a night as a freshman so he’s got plenty of experience. So far this year he’s averaging near 15 ppg, but more importantly, he’s got a 21:9 A:TO ratio. Against Butler, however, he was only 3:4, so one has to wonder if he was ready for the step up in competition after three cupcakes to start the year? At the 2-spot, Davis has played a lot of minutes (28 ppg as a freshman) but isn’t being highly used so far, being held scoreless on 5 shots vs Butler.

C) They play a very conservative defense. They don’t gamble on generating steals or turnovers, bottom 10% nationally in steal rate, but instead they focus on just playing sound positional defense. They are only a little above average in terms of shooting percentage defense, but there’s two things they do very well: First, they don’t foul, top 10% nationally in how few FT attempts they allow; Second, they’re currently one of the best teams in the country at defensive rebounding, with a D-reb % of over 80%. Offensive rebounds will not likely be a part of our gameplan here, though Butler did have some limited success there.

Their Season To Date

Dayton is 4-0 on the season, opening with three straight lightweight blowouts (North Florida, Coppin St, Purdue-Ft Wayne) before a quality 69-64 win over Butler to open their Atlantis schedule.

Keys to getting the win:

1) Keep them off the FT line. The Flyers are in the Top 20% nationally in getting to the line. To some degree that’s largely thanks to picking on low-major programs so far, but they shot 23 FTAs vs Butler yesterday as well. Like MTSU yesterday, given that this is a team that doesn’t like to shoot a lot of 3’s, they work hard on getting into the lane for scoring, including drawing whistles. Virginia’s big men will need to play clean defense in the paint to prevent Dayton from using FTs to keep this one close.

2) Slow down Josh Cunningham. The RS Senior big man missed the first two games of the year with a hand injury, but has looked fantastic in his last two games, averaging 19 points and 8 rebounds a contest. One of the reasons I’d hoped Salt wouldn’t have to play a lot last night was because he’s going to be needed to play a strong game against the 6’8, 230-pounder. We’ve seen Salt shut down elite big men before (Ben Lammers hated him), and limiting the impact of the Flyers’ star center will go a long way to limiting their teams’ chances.

3) Exploit our size and spacing at the forward spots. Dayton will start in a 2-big lineup, with Cunningham and either Mikesell or Toppin at the 4 and 5. Neither are guys who want to defend in space away from the basket. With our big forwards in Hunter and Key, they have the opportunity to exploit whichever Flyer big draws them as a defensive assignment, much as Butler’s wing-4 Sean McDermott was able to do yesterday (the 6-6 forward went for 18 points). In fact, Butler’s 3 and 4 got Dayton’s forwards into a ton of foul trouble (Mikesell and SF Landers both fouled out, Toppin ended with 4 fouls) by being aggressive against them, and Hunter and Key (and Jerome when we go small) all ought to be able to do the same.

Predictions:

This is our first opportunity to see UVA against a high-major (I count the A-10), and Dayton will not back down. This is a program with a long history as a party crasher against top teams, and while they miss former coach Archie Miller, 2nd year Flyers head man Anthony Grant (previously at VCU and Alabama) is no slouch. Virginia needs to shake off some of the sleepwalking we’ve seen in our first four games, where we’ve at times been sloppy with passes, on the defensive glass, and with fouls. As such, we need to “flip the switch” today, being locked in from the tip and for a full 40 minutes, much as we’ll need to do throughout ACC play.

That’s no given, as the Atlantis setting really inhibits the play of top teams. It’s a makeshift gym in a freaking ballroom, with only half the limited seats even filled. It’s a wonky set up that can screw with a team’s intensity and focus (I usually hate watching Atlantis games for this reason; the good teams rarely look like they’re enjoying playing in the stitched-together gym).

But I’m going to bet on our veterans realizing this, and our starters getting the job done in the first half, withstanding the Flyers’ attempts and making a run, and our forwards Hunter and Key continue their excellent play, with Jerome reasserting himself as well.

Hoos Win 72-64