Wisconsin (B4A) Badgers

Virginia fans have to endure one heck of a sports day today. Overlapping with our annual rivalry clash with the Hokies, the men’s basketball team will be playing in the Battle 4 Atlantis title game, its 6th straight holiday tournament title on the line, against our program’s soulmate, the Wisconsin Badgers. Sound defense, valuing possessions, and about 20 mentions by ESPN of the Dick Bennett connection (did ya know that Tony was on his dad’s staff at Wisconsin!).

Game Details:

Date/Time: Friday, November 23rd, 2:00 pm ET
Location: Atlantis Resort, Nassau, Bahamas
TV: ESPN

 

What ‘They’ Say

Vegas:
TAPE: Ranks Wisconsin #10, predicts a 60-58 UVA win, 55% confidence
KenPom: Ranks Wisconsin #12, predicts a 63-60 UVA win, 59% confidence

 

Depth Chart:

Starters
PG #0 D’Mitrik Trice, 6’0″ 187, SO
30.2 mpg, 19.2 ppg, 2.6 apg, .606 3P%
SG #34 Brad Davison, 6’3″ 206, SO
30.8 mpg, 9.8 ppg, 2.0 apg, .353 3P%
SF #21 Khalil Iverson, 6’5″ 217, SR
26.0 mpg, 5.6 ppg, 6.8 rpg, .370 FG%
PF #22 Ethan Happ, 6’10” 237, SR
30.0 mpg, 17.0 ppg, 12.0 rpg, .567 FG%
C #35 Nate Reuvers, 6’11” 240, SO
20.0 mpg, 8.6 ppg, 2.2 rpg, .484 FG%
Key Reserves
G #1 Brevin Pritzl, 6’3″ 198, JR
20.6 mpg, 6.6 ppg, 0.6 apg, .400 3P%
G #23 Kobe King, 6’4″ 203, FR
20.4 mpg, 6.6 ppg, 0.0 apg, .400 3P%
G #12 Trevor Anderson, 6’2″ 201, SO
8.2 mpg, 1.2 ppg, 0.6 apg, .000 3P%

 

The ABC’s of Wisconsin (B4A):

A) The team we held to 37 last year is a year older and better. It was a young team we beat last fall in the ACC-B1G challenge, with a lot of freshmen and sophomores in the main rotation. Trice was 0-5 from 3, Davison was 2-10 overall, and King and Reuvers combined for just 2 points. Those youngsters have taken a big step forward this year. Trice, King, and Davison all fought injuries last year (Trice and King each only played 10 games as a result and will get a mulligan on that season regarding eligibility, so technically now they’re RS Soph and RS Frosh again, after being true Soph/Fr last year), but are back with a vengeance, looking like a classic veteran Wisconsin backcourt.

B) They’re pure from deep. They’re 13th nationally in team 3-point percentage, shooting a nasty 44.8% collectively. They don’t take a ton of 3’s, being very selective about only taking good looks (sound familiar?) but nonetheless it makes them scary to have to defend. Most every guard in their perimeter rotation are dangerous: Trice at 61%, Davison at 35%, Pritzl at 40%, and King at 40%. The lone exception is G/F Khalil Iverson, who’s missed his only 2 attempts this year, and is more of their small-ball 4, preferring to play things in the paint. But the OTHER 3-point threat is…

C) Nate Reuvers is a breakout stretch 5. As a freshman, he was relatively quiet, playing a robust 16 mpg but chipping in only 5 points and 2 rebounds a night. So far this year, though, he’s on fire. His 9 points and 2 rebounds aren’t eye popping, but it’s the ways he reshapes the game that matter. Defensively he’s an insane rim protector, blocking 3.4 shots a game so far. Offensively, he’s a dead-eye 3-point shooter, hitting on 60% on the year. Yes, his attempts have been limited (only takes about 2 a game), but the very fact he’s a threat stretches the defense out to the perimeter to cover him, opening up the paint for All-American big man Ethan Happ to operate on the blocks where he’s most at home.

 

Their Season To Date

Wisconsin is 5-0 on the year. In addition to layup wins over Coppin State and Houston Baptist, they’ve already got 3 P5 wins on their resume, all away from home: 77-68 @ Xavier, and here in the Bahamas they won 62-46 over Stanford and 78-58 over Oklahoma.

 

Keys to getting the win:

1) Commit as few turnovers as humanly possible. This is going to be a tight, ugly game. Virginia cannot afford to have the balance tip because it’s making dumb choices with the ball. There are teams out there you can gamble against with aggressive passing or ball handling and get away with it; Wisconsin is not one of them. We’re averaging 11 TO’s a game in the Bahamas, and in getting sloppy against GW a week ago we had 12. The Hoos need to be very disciplined in this regard to get the win.

2) Use our 4 and 5 spots to space the floor. If we want to have success on offense, we need to be able to stretch out their defense. Happ and Reuvers camping in the paint (4.6 blocks a game combined) are going to kill most any chance we have of scoring at the rim. The only way to counter that is to draw them away from the paint. Obviously with Salt in the game that’s only partially an option, but every other big man we have in the game (whether true bigs like Mamadi and Jay, or small forwards like Key and Hunter), need to be willing to pop out to the corners and take/make some 3’s to draw those Wisconsin bigs out of the paint. If they don’t, it’s going to be a painful night for our offense.

3) Be the more physical team. Within reason, of course (talking to you, Mamadi), but to date Wisconsin has not faced a team capable of proverbially punching them in the mouth. Xavier (breaking in a new coach), Stanford (really young roster), and Oklahoma (adjusting to life after Trae Young) were all soft programs that Wisconsin could impose their Big Ten physicality upon. Virginia needs to be the team that out-toughs them. Bump them coming off screens and hammer the screener fighting through them. Body them hard on box outs. Put a shoulder into them on drives to create space. And take them out of rhythm on the 3-point line, forcing their guards to score in the lane where they’re less comfortable.

 

 

Predictions:

It seems like every year UVA faces early games against physical teams and we struggle. Last year it was our road trip to West Virginia where we got the L, after Wisconsin made our offense look impotent (lucky for us Wisky’s offense last year was even worse). Two years ago we struggled against West Virginia and Florida State. I’m not opimistic we’re going to be ready for Wisconsin’s physicality today either, especially with the minutes our core players have been logging over the last 40 hours. I’m just worried we wear down over the game, and tired legs manifest themselves as missed jumpers, just further complicating our ability to space their paint-clogging defense. And of course, asking Mamadi and Huff to consistently space the floor from the 4/5 spot is nice in theory but we’ve yet to see the team actually deploy that consistently.

I didn’t talk a lot about Ethan Happ above because his excellence is kind of a given, he’ll go for 15 and 10 against us because he’s that elite, and doubling him is silly because he’ll expertly pass right out of it. This will come down to how well we can stymie the rest of their lineup, and how well we can score against it.

Back in the preseason, when breaking down our out-of-conference slate (link), I predicted the Hoos to drop the Bahamas final, and I’m sticking with it. This isn’t an indictment of the Hoos. Ignore the fact that Wisconsin is ranked 25th. They’re way better than that. The computers have them Top 15, and by virtue of their earlier start times this weekend and their runaways over Stanford and Oklahoma, they’re fresher. It just sets up for UVA to leave Nassau with a teaching moment rather than a trophy. Frankly, in the long run, it might be better that way.

Hoos lose.

Wisconsin (B4A) Wins 56-52