Syracuse Orange

The title defense begins not with a whimper, but with a bang, as the Hoos hit the road to the legendary Carrier Dome. It’s a good matchup for UVA, as Jim Boeheim has a deep if inexperienced club, and our matchups with Syracuse are usually tight, quality affairs. Who will start the year with the critical win?

Game Details:

What ‘They’ Say

Depth Chart:

The ABC’s of Syracuse:

A) The Orange lost 80% of their starting lineup. Gone are starting point guard Franklin Howard (8.9 ppg, 2.9 apg) and center Paschal Chukwu (5.4 rpg, 1.7 bpg) to graduation. Also gone are wings Oshae Brissett (12.4 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and Tyus Battle (17.2 ppg) in search of their pro dreams (both undrafted). The only returning starter is redshirt junior wing Elijah Hughes, who was the Orange’s second leading scorer at 13.7 ppg and one of their few deep threats as a 37% 3-point shooter. There are few obvious candidates to replace those veteran alphas, as Cuse’s recruiting has dipped in recent years with sophomore Jalen Carey the only consensus four star left on the roster.

B) Syracuse got a summer Europe trip to find themselves. With a wide open roster (Boeheim has 12 scholarship players to choose from), winnowing down the roster was a tall task. But an August trip to Italy (NCAA teams can go on a summer international tour once every four years; UVA’s most recent was to Spain in 2016) gave the Orange a chance to work out their roster against live competition, a big advantage to a team working in such a revamped roster.

C) The locker room feels healthier this year. The last couple years, the Cuse roster has felt a bit worn. There was little depth and starters logged the heaviest minutes in the ACC. The Orange were firmly entrenched in the middle of the ACC pack, which was disappointing to a lot of their higher-profile recruits who’d committed back when Cuse was riding higher, and many of whom felt as if they’d rather be in the NBA than upstate NY (as evidenced by both Brissett and Battle leaving only to go undrafted). But this roster feels imbued with a fresh energy. They’re young, with eight underclassmen in the rotation, but though many of those youngsters weren’t highly regarded prospects, they’re at least clean from the disappointment of years past. While the roster lacks some star power, it conversely isn’t dominated by egos the way they were the last couple seasons. And as we’ve seen at UVA, a little chemistry goes a long way into making the whole greater than the sum of its parts.

Their Season To Date

In addition to their summer trip to Italy, Syracuse played two preseason exhibition games this fall. Their first was a 90-71 win over Division II Daemen College, and their second was a 77-58 win over Canadian college Carleton.

Keys to getting the win:

1) Attack the rim. Gone from the middle of Syracuse’s 2-3 zone is the 7’2″ shot-blocking monster Paschal Chukwu who racked up nearly 200 blocks in his 3-season college career. His replacement, rising junior Sidibe, has yet to prove he’s ready to anchor the defense after he got called for a indefensible 9.3 fouls per 40 minutes as a sophomore. His backups are either a pair of low profile true freshmen (Ajak and Edwards) or the toothpick Dolezaj (the Cuse roster lists him at 6’10” and just 185 lbs). Given some question marks surrounding the 3-point shooting on the Hoos coming into this year, Virginia shouldn’t gamble its fortunes on the long ball when it arguably can utilize its massive advantage in the front court (Diakite, Huff, and Key) to go strong repeatedly at the middle of the zone, bonus if we can double down on that advantage with offensive rebounds and second chance points.

2) Shut down the perimeter. Last year the Orange played downhill with big athletic wings like Brissett and Battle. This year their offensive strategy is likely to change drastically. In their two exhibition games, the Cuse guards and wings have been far more willing and effective with the long ball. Against Daemen they hit 15 of 32 (47%) from long range with Hughes, Boeheim, Goodine, Girard, and Braswell all connecting on multiple 3’s. Against Carleton they were 10 of 23 (43%) with Hughes, Boeheim, and Girard again leading the way. If these guys find their rhythm on their home floor, Virginia’s in for a long night. Last year the Hoos were third nationally in 3P% defense (28.9% allowed), but obviously this year’s team looks very different and will have to prove they’re capable of performing anywhere near as well. 

3) Limit turnovers. The Syracuse Zone defense should be somewhat less lethal than it’s historically been in the first game with such a new roster, especially given the concerns in the post discussed below. But that just means Boeheim may turn his guards loose to try and disrupt our guards before they even get into the offense. Kihei is taking on a much-expanded facilitator role, and Casey, Tomas, and Kody are playing their first meaningful D-1 minutes. It’s a potential week spot the Orange may likely try to exploit, so our young back court must rise to the challenge by protecting the ball, preferably keeping the turnovers in the single digits.

Predictions:

This is a really intriguing start to the year. Forget the unfairness that UVA is the first national champion in generations to open its season on the road. Boeheim has a team that’s every bit as new as ours, though with some key differences. We’ve got superior post depth with Huff, Diakite, and Key (even accounting that Caffaro is out with injury and Shedrick is redshirting) all upperclassmen. They’ve got a bevy of diverse young but talented perimeter players that include playmakers (Carey and Hughes), shooters (Boeheim and Girard), and combo forwards (Braswell and Guerrier) that will look to outscore via the long ball. First game of the season against a major opponent always invites its share of rust and nerves to play a role as well, especially with six or seven guys playing in their first-ever D-1 game between the two teams.

I like our defense in this one, though unfortunately Papi’s absence means Key will be playing most of minutes at the 4 which means we don’t get to play our defensive death lineup (Kihei-Casey-Key-Diakite-Huff) much if at all. But between our point-of-attack defense with Clark and Morsell and our backline defense with the three veteran bigs, I like UVA’s ability to frustrate most of the Orange offense, the lone weak spot maybe being on the wings when Kody or Woldetensae (or maybe McKoy) get matched up on a natural scorer like Hughes, Boeheim, or Girard. 

So then the question becomes how well will our offense operate? I don’t think this is as fearsome a 2-3 Zone as we’re used to, both with the weakness in the post and the lack of size/length up top (Girard, Carey, Goodine, and Washington are smaller than coach Boehim usually likes to run at the 1-2 of his defense). But UVA’s offense this year is going to sink or swim based on how well the guard quartet of Kihei, Casey, Tomas, and Kody can operate at an ACC level, both facilitating cleanly and scoring. I foresee some occasional struggles here, so it will be incumbent on the offense to get past the first line of defense quickly to exploit our post advantage before the Cuse guards can disrupt our backcourt.

The newness of it all, both teams, makes this a hard game to pick. At JPJ, I’d take UVA with a little more confidence, but on the road it’s far closer to a toss-up. So in the first game of the season, I’m going to give the edge to a team that’s a little better battle tested. The Hoos stars have been to the Final Four, whereas the Orange were a fast washout in last year’s tourney. The Hoos spent their preseason in vicious scrimmages against Tourney-level powerhouses VCU and Georgetown, whereas the Orange got fat on Italian semi-pros and Division II-level cupcakes. Despite the game being in the hostile Carrier Dome, I feel like the Hoos are the team to bet on in the heat of the moment.

Hoos Win 67-63