Our pre-game analyst StLouHoo has a dim outlook on this one for the Hoos – and why not? FSU has an excellent defense, aggressive offense, and they are winning their ACC games by double-digit points. Why, then, do the analytics sites see this as a closer game than does homer StLouHoo?

FSU has some weaknesses that make this not such an open-and-shut case as it might appear. Defensively, their three-point defense gives up a high percentage, and they give up a lot of offensive rebounds. They are also merely average at preventing teams from scoring on offensive rebounds, so if we can hit a higher than our average percentage of our threes, and rebound 30% of our misses, we can score more than expected. They also foul a lot and can be scored on in isolation, the pick-and-roll and in the post, all areas where they are below the 60% rank in Synergy stats.

Offensively, they turn the ball over a LOT, and they are most efficient in transition and on offensive rebounds. So if we can play our game, we can slow their offense down a lot, and if we can make them turn it over to their average, we will have opportunities to go on runs. Kihei is going to have to get up and stay up under Forrest, and if he can do that, he can force Forrest to turn it over. IMO Kihei has to play this one aggressively, taking the risk of Forrest getting around him, because if he takes normal precautions against getting turned, he’s just going to get bullied into the lane and shot over. By Boguesing Forrest, he has his best chance of winning the battle. 

With the other wings, we want to make them shoot jumpers. They are decent three-point shooters but less dangerous there than getting into the lane. The wing is where we really suffer, as our wings are no match for theirs one-on-one. We will want to play Key at wing as much as we can so he can take Devin Vassell.

All of this could explain why the analytics sites have it closer than we might think.