December 2, 2020

Independent analysis and commentary on UVA athletics

ACC Offseason Refresh – #2 Duke

Library

Contents

Duke’s annual roster reshuffling bids farewell to the best pure PG they’ve had in years in Tre Jones, the headliner of six rotation players to either graduate, turn pro, or transfer. They’re backfilled by seven new faces, but there’s reason to think this year’s youth movement may struggle a bit more than usual.

Coach: Mike Krzyzewski; 1,157-350 in 45 Seasons Overall; 1,084-291 (441-180) in 40 seasons at Duke

2019-20 Record: 25-6 (15-5); T-2nd in ACC

2019-20 KenPom Efficiency:

National: AdjO: 115.7 (9th of 353)
AdjD: 91.1 (12th of 353)
ACC: AdjO: 111.2 (1st of 15)
AdjD: 95.4 (2nd of 15)

 

Roster Roundup

Departures:

PG Tre Jones (Turned Pro)
29 G, 35.4 mpg, 16.2 ppg, 6.4 apg, 36% 3P%
G/F Alex O’Connell (Transferred to Creighton)
29 G, 13.3 mpg, 5.2 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 27% 3P%
G/F Cassius Stanley (Turned Pro)
29 G, 27.4 mpg, 12.6 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 36% 3P%
F Justin Robinson (Graduated)
15 G, 6.8 mpg, 2.8 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 43% 3P%
PF Jack White (Graduated)
30 G, 15.6 mpg, 3.1 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 39% FG%
F/C Javin DeLaurier (Graduated)
31 G, 13.2 mpg, 3.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 55% FG%
C Vernon Carey Jr. (Turned Pro)
31 G, 24.9 mpg, 17.8 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 58% FG%

Returners:

PG Jordan Goldwire (SR)
31 G, 24.1 mpg, 4.7 ppg, 2.3 apg, 35% 3P%
G/F Wendell Moore Jr. (SO)
25 G, 24 mpg, 7.4 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 21% 3P%
F Joey Baker (JR)
28 G, 12.1 mpg, 5 ppg, 0.9 rpg, 39% 3P%
F/C Matthew Hurt (SO)
31 G, 20.5 mpg, 9.7 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 49% FG%

Additions:

PG Jeremy Roach (5-star FR)
G DJ Steward (5-star FR)
F Jalen Johnson (5-star FR)
PF Henry Coleman (4-star FR)
PF Jaemyn Brakefield (4-star FR)
C Mark Williams (4-star FR)
C Patrick Tape (RS SR Transfer, Columbia)
27 G, 22.7 mpg, 11.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 67% FG%

*Projected starters in bold

Outlook

Tre Jones, Vernon Carey, and Cassius Stanley are off to the NBA, but 5-star sophomores Wendell Moore and Matthew Hurt elected to return. They lose three more seniors to graduation (Delaurier, White, and Robinson) and Alex O’Connell to transfer, meaning their only upperclassmen this year are former role players Jordan Goldwire (senior) and Joey Baker (Jr). Hurt and Moore were good complementary options last year, but they’re going to have to lean hard on true freshmen.

Those 5-star true freshmen include guards Jeremy Roach and DJ Steward, as well as big man Mark Williams; these are very good young players, but none of whom I think are quite as good as they’re going to be made out to be, maybe not like some of their Day-1-Elite level forbearers. Similarly I don’t see Columbia grad transfer center Patrick Tape being anything more than a cog, and I’m not confident either Coleman or Brakefield really break out as a freshman. Wing forward Jalen Johnson is the only surefire 2021 1st round draft pick on this year’s Duke team. I think their ACC target is maybe 15-5 again, still good enough to win the league with the other top teams similarly having concerns. But weird as it is to say about a Duke team, this feels like a club that’s built mostly for “next year,” when this big freshman class returns seasoned and mostly intact. This year the youth will show without either a veteran presence or the abundance of immediate NBA talent to buoy them.