December 2, 2020

Independent analysis and commentary on UVA athletics

ACC Offseason Refresh – #3 Florida State

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Last year was FSU’s year. It broke my heart, honestly, for the Seminoles to see their shot at coach Hamilton’s first Final Four dashed by the NCAA Tournament cancellation. Some key pieces moved on to graduation and the pros, but Florida State has proven adept in recent years at restocking with quality depth. Will this year be another strong season in Tallahassee?

Coach: Leonard Hamilton; 582-431 in 34 Seasons Overall; 382-221 (164-142) in 18 seasons at Florida State

2019-20 Record: 26-5 (16-4); 1st in ACC

2019-20 KenPom Efficiency:

National: AdjO: 111.7 (32nd of 353)
AdjD: 91.5 (15th of 353)
ACC: AdjO: 106.1 (4th of 15)
AdjD: 95.8 (3rd of 15)

 

Roster Roundup

Departures:

G Trent Forrest (Graduated)
31 G, 30.9 mpg, 11.6 ppg, 4 apg, 28% 3P%
F Devin Vassell (Turned Pro)
30 G, 28.8 mpg, 12.7 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 42% 3P%
F Patrick Williams (Turned Pro)
29 G, 22.5 mpg, 9.2 ppg, 4 rpg, 32% 3P%
C Dominik Olejniczak (Graduated)
29 G, 10.7 mpg, 4.2 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 61% FG%

Returners:

SG Nathanael Jack (SR)
13 G, 5.7 mpg, 3.3 ppg, 0.4 apg, 33% 3P%
SG RayQuan Evans (SR)
30 G, 11.1 mpg, 3.1 ppg, 1.4 apg, 41% 3P%
G/F M.J. Walker (SR)
26 G, 25.2 mpg, 10.6 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 36% 3P%
SF Anthony Polite (JR)
31 G, 19.7 mpg, 5.8 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 35% 3P%
F Malik Osborne (JR)
31 G, 19.3 mpg, 6 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 36% 3P%
PF Wyatt Wilkes (JR)
28 G, 9.1 mpg, 3.5 ppg, 1 rpg, 41% FG%
F/C Raiquan Gray (JR)
29 G, 19.5 mpg, 6 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 39% FG%
C Balsa Koprivica (SO)
27 G, 10.3 mpg, 4.7 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 70% FG%

Additions:

SF Sardaar Calhoun (JR Transfer, Missouri State-West Plains)
F Scottie Barnes (5-star FR)
C Tanor Ngom (SR Transfer, Ryerson [Canada])
C Quincy Ballard (3-star FR)

*Projected starters in bold

Outlook

Say it with me, now. Florida State is a basketball school. The football team is a perennial disappointment, but under Leonard Hamilton the basketball team is a model of successful consistency.

The losses of Vassell and Williams to the NBA are big, but their biggest loss is probably that of Forrest who was the closest thing to a true point guard on the roster. Senior MJ Walker, the Noles’ lone returning double-digit scorer, and 1-and-done 5-star Scottie Barnes are the likely offensive focal points, and their usual collection of big athletes will add depth. Koprivica, Grey, and Ngom will form this year’s iteration of their usual rotation of 7-foot defensive anchors. But there is no true point guard once again, and that’s been a problem for them in past years in running peak offense.

I think this team is a step back from last year. Forrest made that team tick as a senior 1-guard. Evans and Walker will try to fill that role but I don’t feel either is a natural fit. They’ll also need both Polite and Osborne to take steps up in productivity as they become bigger parts of the offense. They’re still a tourney team, probably due for at least 12-14 ACC wins, and the defense should be its usual tough self. But unless the guard situation works itself out, the Noles are probably not quite the title contender like they were last season.