Perhaps the most disappointing effect of the NCAA having to cancel the tournaments due to Covid was that Jay Huff did not get the chance to continue his “next step” in the post-season. Huff had stepped into a bigger role as a junior, especially in the last eight games of the season, and was poised to take center stage as the Hoos defended their NCAA title. It was not to be. We all hope he will get the chance to lead his team in that title defense in 2021.

Jay’s role was much bigger in 2019-20 than it had been in 2018-19, and so was his production. He went from starting 0 games and averaging 9.3 minutes as a sophomore to starting 18 games and averaging 25.0 minutes as a junior. His scoring average almost doubled, from 4.4 ppg to 8.5. He hit double-digits in scoring 14 times, rebounding three times, and blocked shots once, tallying four double-doubles for the season. He made tremendous progress on defense with hedging, positional and rotational responsibilities, and slashing his fouls from 6.3/40 minutes to 3.9. He also was able to maintain a high level of performance for much longer stretches. Whereas in 2018-19 his performance level would plunge after two-three minutes of play, in 2019-20 he was able to maintain a high level on both ends of the floor for as long as eight minutes or more. He made the big leap. His job as a senior is to further raise his level.

What He Brings

Huff’s attributes are well known. He is a mobile and agile 7-footer who can shoot the three and finish on the move. On defense, he is an extraordinary rim protector who can defend big posts one-on-one. He’s a strong rebounder on both boards. Jay is a player who can dominate a game on both ends of the floor, and who has done so for stretches throughout his career.

“[H]is ability to shoot, especially at the 5-spot, creates mismatch nightmares for some teams,” Coach Jason Williford told VirginiaSports.Com’s Jeff White in a recent feature about Huff. “Traditionally when you’re playing teams with true centers, they don’t necessarily want to be out away from the basket. That’s Jay’s game. Obviously he can post, but he’s way more comfortable facing the basket.”

Most of Virginia’s big men follow a career pattern that begins with committing a lot of fouls, struggling with the hedge and recover, and spending a lot of time getting instruction from the assistant coaches; then gradually reducing the fouls, mastering the hedge and recover, and teaching the younger players. Jay made the big leap last year as a defender, and now is a plus hedger, recovers and rotates like a champ, and doesn’t foul himself off the floor.

Huff hit 1000 minutes played for his career during the Notre Dame game, which coincidentally was when he took off as a player, having the most productive stretch of his career, including several dominant performances. As a 1000-minute man he brings a mastery of the system that will allow him to fully utilize has natural talents as a shotblocker and rebounder. Jay was 17th in Division I with an 11.1% Block percentage last season, and was in the top 10% of D-I as a defensive rebounder at 20.6 DR%.

On offense, Jay brings star power as a mobile, perimeter-oriented big. One thing he is not is a strong post scorer, where he converted a mere 0.638 PPP. When operating from the perimeter, however, Jay is an extraordinarily efficient and explosive player. He is one of the most efficient players in the country as the Pick & Roll Roll Man, able to either roll to the hoop or pop to the arc. As a spot-up shooter he is a three-point threat and very good at attacking close outs with a pump fake and single-dribble drive to the rim. He also moves well away from the ball with high efficiency scoring on Cuts. Jay is a player who can be the centerpiece of an offense.

What I Would Like To See More

In an early season game against Maine, Huff scored Virginia’s first 7 points in 5 minutes. He finished the game with 13. Later in the season, he scored 8 points in less than 2 minutes against Notre Dame. He finished the game with 8. When Boston College came to Charlottesville, Jay led the Hoos to revenge with 11 first-half points. He finished with 14. At Miami, he scored Virginia’s first 17 points. He finished with 17. See a pattern here?

Those stretches of domination are what make a star, and any team that wants to go deep into the NCAA Tournament has to have at least one player who can go off for 15 in a half without batting an eye. Does UVA make it to the Final Four without both Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome going for 14+ in the second half of the Elite Eight? Do we win the title without De’Andre Hunter pouring in 22 in the second half and overtime against Texas Tech?

Jay showed in 2019-20 that he can pour in points in bunches, but a player who scores 17 in a half should have a career high of more than 17 points. What I want to see this year is Jay stringing two dominant halves together. He made the jump from strong short stretches of play to strong extended stretches. Now I want to see him take that step to complete games. I want to see Jay have a 30-point game and multiple 20-point games. It will take three things for that to happen:

1) He will have to maintain the same aggressive attitude about shooting for an entire game. Jay seemed to be happy to have his burst then let someone else take a turn. No, Jay, you da man.

2) He will have to attempt more than 1.8 three-point shots per game. His three-point attempt rate actually fell from sophomore to junior year – as did his usage rate. As a sophomore, 32.3% of his attempts were threes and he had a 23.0% usage rate (meaning that when he was on the floor he finished 23% of the team’s possessions), and as a junior only 28.8% of his shots were threes and his usage rate was just 18.7%. Those rates need to climb. I want to see both of those rates at least match his sophomore year (It makes no sense to me for Jay to have a higher usage rate on the same team as Guy, Jerome and Hunter than without those guys).

3) Tony Bennett will need to feature Jay in the offense in the things that he does well, and not try to make him be a post-up scorer. His sophomore year only 7.8% of his plays were from the post, while that figure inexplicably jumped to 19.5% last year, matching his plays on the Pick & Roll. His play distribution should match that of his sophomore year when 24% of his plays were Spot-Up shots, 23.3% on the Pick & Roll and 20.9% on Cuts, instead of junior year.

Other than that, I want to see more of the same. Jay had an excellent junior year. He played good defense – his post defense improved as the season progressed – and did his job in the offense. Now it’s just a matter of fine-tuning things and making that progression to team leader. Time for the Hoonicorn to shine.

What I Would Like To See Less

My greatest wishes in this section were hinted at in the last section. Seeing less of what I want to see less will lead to seeing more of what I want to see more. I want to see less of:

1) Jay in the post. He’s not a post player. We do not need a post offense, and if we do, Sam Hauser is far more likely to give us a productive one. Jay taking shots in the post is one of the least efficient plays in the Virginia offense.

2) Jay catching the ball at the top of the key NOT ready to shoot. I know that in Virginia’s motion offense the big man is stationed there as a reversal option. Catch it from one side and reverse it to the other. But Jay is 7-1 and a career 38% three-point shooter. He should be ready to shoot whenever he catches the ball with even a little space. He’s not playing with Guy, Jerome and Hunter anymore. HE is the first option now.

3) Jay hesitating to shoot or passing up open shots. Far too many times last season Jay either hesitated before putting up a three or caught the ball with a clean look and passed it off. Jay Huff needs to catch that ball with Kyle Guy’s attitude: if my guy is not draped all over me, I’m going to hit that shot.

I might get what I want.

UVA’s coaches have encouraged him to keep shooting 3-pointers, Huff said, “and I worked on that a lot over the summer. Especially I worked on not catching it and bringing it down and then shooting. I’ve been catching it here—about shoulder-high––and then going straight up. So I feel like my shot’s improved, which I’m proud of.”

That work, if it carries over into the season, could pay big dividends for Virginia. Huff has shot the best from three when he has shot the most from three. He was a 45% shooter as a sophomore when he had that 23% usage rate and 32.3% 3PAr. He hit almost 50% in the last eight games last year when he shot the three more frequently than earlier in the season.

The other thing I want to see less of is Jay having the ball knocked or ripped out of his hands. Some of that is keeping it high, some of it is being stronger in the base so he can high-point the ball more, and some is just more grip strength.

Expected Role

This is the year. The Hoonicorn will be the bell cow for the team. Seniors come into their last season under Tony Bennett knowing it is their time to lead. It is their job to teach, guide and inspire the younger players. It is also their time to defer to nobody on the floor. You carried the water, you passed the rock, now it’s your time to be the man. Jay will be the first starter penciled into the lineup every night, and he will be the #1 big man.

Expect the offense to be centered around Kihei Clark and Jay running high screens all game long. Expect to see Jay pop more and loft those threes with less hesitation and more confidence. Sam Hauser’s 45% three-point shooting spotted up in the corner is going to create a lot more space for either Kihei penetrating or Jay rolling and put defenders on the spot repeatedly. Stay with the shooter or rotate to protect the basket? With shooters like Tomas Woldetensae and Carson McCorkle available for the other corner, call this offense “The Rack” and call Kihei “The Marquis” – de Sade, that is, for the torture he will inflict.

Defensively, Mamadi Diakite is no longer there to switch on guards and erase mistakes, so Jay will be THE rim protector this year. Having finally mastered the hedge-and-recover, cut down his fouling, and learned not to challenge everything, Huff is ready to anchor another great Tony Bennett defense.

Final Analysis

Frank Kaminsky was the player everybody talked about when they evaluated the recruit Jay Huff, and the big Badger remains a pretty good analogy. Jay has climbed a step each year and is poised for a monster redshirt-senior year. I’m expecting big things from the big man. His fire, his edge, his insouciance will set just the tone for a team that is coming hard with a chip on its shoulder to kick ass and take names later.

I’m looking for Jay to average over 15 ppg with a 3pt rate over 33% and a 3FG% at 40+. He should have a usage rate over 20% and top three on the team. Defensively, I am looking for a rebounding percentage in the 22-24% range. I want to see him owning the defensive boards and finding outlet passes the way a 7-footer should.

Jay Huff might be a unicorn, but he’s going to be the monster haunting opposing teams.