Let me just begin this by saying, I freaking love Kihei Clark. It started when I went looking for video right after Coach Tony Bennett offered and watched him making fools out of bigger players on the playground, and it grew when I watched his high school team play in two different tournaments and nearly every time he took over the game at will, and it grew again when he single-handedly resolved the Hoos’ guard depth issues as a mere freshman. Underrated and overlooked, Kihei Clark became an indispensable member of a national championship team.

After the championship, nobody in college basketball had a tougher job or bigger adjustment to make. Not only did he have to go from sidekick to superhero in a single offseason, but he had to adjust to a three-point line pushed back by almost two feet. Many expected his three-point percentage to suffer from the change in role and the change in paint. Once again, people doubted if Kihei Clark were up to the task, and once again, he just laughed and hooped.

One person didn’t doubt Kihei:

Kihei Clark is the best PG in the ACC. Revisit this in a few months.

— ty Jerome (@tyjerome_) November 16, 2019

Jerome’s tweet didn’t make as many people laugh at the end of the season as at the time he made it. I think Ty was right – just a year early. Kihei was one of six point guards on the post-season All-ACC teams, leading the third team, with Tre Jones, Trent Forrest and Markell Johnson earning more votes. Jose Alvarado and Cole Anthony followed Kihei on the third team. Only Kihei and Alvarado return.

People aren’t laughing this year. The ACC media voted Kihei to the second-team All-ACC, and one voter even voted for him as Player of the Year (my HOOS Place vote went to Jay Huff but I could see Kihei being the guy):

#Virginia was the right pick in @theACC preseason poll but there was a better choice for player of the year#ShotOfJoe pic.twitter.com/PuIW4mgNOk

— Joe Giglio (@giglio_OG) November 11, 2020

The Duke Chronicle picked Kihei for first team.

What He Brings

Kihei Clark is a baller. When you start to think about what he brings to the team, you realize that he is just a well-rounded basketball player. He brings the skills: can shoot the three, can get into the lane almost at will, tight handle, runs the pick & roll sublimely, great free throw shooter. He brings the hustle: 12.2 DReb percentage as the smallest guy on the damn court, tight defensive pressure on the ballhandler, led the ACC in minutes percentage at 93.7% of his team’s minutes. He brings the intangibles: His fearlessness is inspiring, his intelligence changes games, his relentless refusal to get rattled or back down keeps us in games. He brings the big moments that change history: The Play was only the most prominent, greatest of a succession of big moments that transcend his statistics.

Kihei’s two greatest strengths on offense are his running of the pick & roll and his instincts in scramble situations. When systems break down and the floor is open, Kihei’s recognition and intelligence let him find space to operate. While he did poorly in isolation plays, too often getting too deep into the defense and being left without options, he was efficient as the Pick & Roll Ball Handler, which accounted for 40.1% of his possessions, grading at 67% from Synergy. When you add in passes, his productivity rises to the 79% range. He teams extraordinarily well with Jay Huff. His numbers would have been even higher if the Hoos had anyone who could hit the corner three for most of the season.

Kihei’s greatness as a playmaker last year was demonstrated by him averaging 5.9 assists per game, 2nd in the ACC in Assist Rate at 37.7%, on a team that couldn’t shoot for three-quarters of the season. Imagine what he would have averaged if so many of his passes didn’t lead to three-pointers clanking off the rim! He had 176 assists on the season – 7th best total in UVA history – might John Crotty’s UVA record 214 have been in danger?

As good as he is passing the rock, don’t overlook Clark’s ability to score in bunches. He hit 4-6 threes at Louisville and dumped in 23 points, combining with Tomas Woldetensae to almost shoot the Hoos to victory. He had games of 18 (twice), 17 (twice), 15 (twice), and eleven other double-digit scoring nights on his way to averaging 10 ppg.

Oh, and did I mention he is one of the best free throw shooters in the nation at 87.6%?

What I Would Like to See More

More made two-pointers, and related, more runners and pull-up jumpers in the lane. Clark made just 37.5% of his two-point attempts, including 42.3% at the rim. He struggled the whole season with recognizing the correct moment to get rid of the ball, resulting in a lot of turnovers and missed shots. I want to see him improve that recognition. Having Sam Hauser will help Kihei when he gets into the lane, as will a wing who is a three-point threat the defense must honor. A lot, however, falls on Kihei’s shoulders.

On defense, I want to see more steals and more ball pressure. Kihei is only successful defending when he can get inside his man’s space and prevent the player from cleanly getting the ball into a shooting position. His defensive numbers in Synergy were not good by UVA standards because too many opponents were able to shoot over him.

The same. Kihei had a fantastic season. He did so much for the team. Often he had to do too much because nobody else could hit shots. He should find himself in that situation less. I want to see more efficiency, and just more of that Mongoose Magic.

What I Would Like to See Less

While Kihei did a plethora of great things for Virginia last year, he also made a plethora of bad decisions, some of them appallingly bad like throwing blind passes toward his own basket. His turnover rate went from a very high 19.5% as a freshman to an atrocious 26.1% last year. He bucked the trend of Tony Bennett point guards cutting their turnover rates as they aged. To be fair, a lot of that was due to his dramatic jump in role and the dearth of reliable offensive options surrounding him. The context will be better this year, so Kihei has no excuse for not getting his rate down to a Ty Jerome 13-14% range.

Jerome is a good analogue for Kihei here: a point guard whose aggressive attitude and confidence in his own accuracy led to a lot of great plays but a high turnover rate in his first year. Ty cut his rate from 22.9% to 15.6 as a sophomore, then to 13.3 in his third and final year, while simultaneously raising his assist rate from 21.2% to 25.6, to 32.6. Kihei needs to show a corresponding improvement in judgment this year.

The other thing I want to see less of is opponents shooting over the top of Kihei. Several guards, Boston College freshman Jay Heath most notoriously, simply rose up and shot in his face, and Kihei was unable to bother their shots. As a result, Kihei’s defensive numbers against “Runners” and “Jumpers off the Dribble” were low. While he was excellent preventing drivers from going right, when they were able to go left, opponents scored at will.

Finally, I just want to see Kihei play fewer minutes. It will be up to Reece Beekman to provide a dependable backup point guard option so Kihei can play 32-33 minutes instead of 37-38 minutes.

Expected Role

This is Kihei Clark’s team. He is the man. He will still be the starting point guard, he will still initiate the play the majority of times, he will still be the one making the key decisions. Virginia’s success this year is going to hinge primarily on how well Kihei and Jay Huff run the pick & roll.

Final Analysis

At times last season, Kihei showed the maturity of game that makes a great veteran point guard. At others, he looked like a young player trying to cope with daunting circumstances. He needs to complete the transition this year to grizzled veteran. The number one determinant of how well Kihei fills his role, and how well the team performs, will be his turnover rate. He needs to make the transformation from mercurial and mistake-prone to steady and low-turnover. His turnover rate in his first year was well in line with other Bennett lead guards in their first years. Only London Perrantes (19.2) was lower than Kihei’s 19.5 freshman turnover rate. Kihei did better than Jerome, Malcolm Brogdon (22.1) and Devon Hall (24.2). All of them cut their rates to below 15% quickly, and Kihei’s imperative this season is to get his rate into that same area.

As noted above, extenuating circumstances account for much of Kihei’s anomalous second-year turnover rate, but there were copious amounts of bad decision-making on Kihei’s part. Sometimes he just needs to slow down a little.

I fully expect Kihei to slash his turnover rate and improve his efficiency. Not only is he a year older and wiser, bigger (he’s thick as a brick in recent video) and more confident, but he will be surrounded by a lot more offensive ability. Jay Huff is back and should be more consistent; Sam Hauser brings 45% 3-point marksmanship and true star power to the lineup; Tomas Woldetensae and Casey Morsell should be better; the freshman class brings three All-ACC level talents to the team.

With better shooting on the wings and in the corners, the pick & roll/pop with Kihei and Huff should be devastating. Defenses will be stretched like a heretic on the rack with Kihei playing the role of the Marquis de Sade, deciding where to cut the helpless victim next. When Kihei and Jay create that two-on-one opportunity, the other defenders will be left with the impossible decision between leaving Hauser and Woldetensae alone in the corner or leaving the basket virtually undefended. Virginia should see its pick & roll offense return to the efficiency level of 2018-19 when the Cavaliers were better than 97% of Division I teams, converting 0.998 PPP on pick & roll plays including passes.

At the end of the season, I expect the former unranked recruit to be first-team All-ACC, fulfilling the prophecy of his former teammate, and getting the chance to defend the title he had so much to do with winning two years earlier.