Independent Analysis and Commentary

Baseball

2021 UVA Baseball Roster Draft – Part One

ByKarl Hess

Jan 16, 2021 , , ,

As college baseball programs began practicing on January 15, we’re reminded of the 2020 season that ended too early. Since that fateful week in March, we’ve experienced many twists and turns.

As teams and fanbases around the nation are about to embark on yet another march to Omaha, we’re ready to dive head first into previewing another season of UVA baseball.

As tradition dictates, Kendall and I got together and drafted the entire 2021 baseball roster. We treat the draft as our power ranking of the roster as the team enters the new season. We then project the starting lineup, batting order, pitching rotation, and key bullpen roles. Those will get posted later as additional team preview content.

But for now, it’s time to focus on the roster itself. In a normal season, a D1 program’s active roster is capped at 35 players. Due to the unusual circumstances engulfing the college sports world, there is no roster cap this season. The Hoos are expected to field 38 players on their 2021 roster.

Those 38 players are made up of 27 returnees from the 2020 team and an 11 member recruiting class. Eight players from the 2020 team have departed. Two players, Chesdin Harrington and Evan Sperling, have moved on from college baseball. And six players transferred to new schools.

The six transfers are Griffin Agee (VMI), Jayson Hoopes (Rutgers), Walker Jenkins (Missouri State), Kyle Petri (San Diego State), Cristian Sanchez (Central Arizona College), and Evan Sleight (Rutgers).

And before we jump into the fun stuff, a quick note on the rules. As is customary, Kendall gets to draft first. In a small change for this year, Kendall was kind enough to give me the second and third pick. After that, we alternated turns while chipping in commentary when we had something to say. Also, because the 2020 baseball season did not count against a player’s eligibility, we’re listing players with their class year from that season. The incoming recruiting class will be classified as freshmen as well.

And because the roster is larger than usual. And because Kendall and I tend to have a lot to say, we’ve broken the draft up into two parts.

Up first today is Part One covering picks 1 – 19. As always, enjoy!

1 – Zack Gelof (3B, Sophomore)

Kendall: Gotta go with the future first rounder at #1 overall. Gelof had some struggles defensively on the hot corner during his 18 games in 2020, but the offense and power potential is definitely there and he plays an athletic third base. MLB scouts like his plus speed, plus arm, and smart baserunning. Just needs to clean up the tendency to swing-and-miss, but, yeah, dude’s a star.

Karl: Gelof was part of a nice power renaissance for the Hoos in 2020. I really wanted to see how that played out over the course of the season. Here’s where we cross our fingers for 2021 because this offense will be dynamite!

2 – Andrew Abbott (LHP, Junior)

Karl: MLB’s decision to hold a five round draft in 2020 worked out nicely for the Hoos. Abbott is one of many players we may have lost during a typical draft configuration. Now, the ACC and NCAA batters will have to pay. Abbott will be highly motivated to show the draft slight was a mistake. And it looks like the coaching staff is moving him into the starting rotation. As good as Abbott was as a middle reliever and co-closer, I’m curious to watch his stuff translate to the starting rotation. Being a front line starter also increases his value in these rankings for me.

Kendall: I love the idea of Abbott as a weekend starter, especially considering the fact that McGarry and Vasil are both righties. If Abbott works out in that starter role (and there’s absolutely no reason to think he might not), then the Abbott-McGarry-Vasil weekend run could be one of the best in the ACC and one of the best in the nation. Wow. AND WE HAVEN’T EVEN TALKED ABOUT NATE SAVINO YET.

3 – Chris Newell (OF, Freshman)

Karl: It’s not often a true freshman grabs the reins in CF. But Newell showed that he’s a special player during the abbreviated season. Already one of the top players in the ACC, Newell’s freshman season accolades are off the chart: Freshman All American (Collegiate Baseball Newspaper), Co-Freshman of the Year (Collegiate Baseball Newspaper), Second Team All American (Collegiate Baseball Newspaper), and ACC Freshman of the Year (D1Baseball.com).

And not only did Newell lead the Hoos in several statistical categories, he was among the ACC leaders too: 8th in batting average (.407), 3rd in slugging percentage (.729), 2nd in on base percentage (.545), 1st in OPS (1.274), 4th in runs scored (21), 5th in RBI (20), and tied for 4th in stolen bases (8). If there’s a hole in Newell’s game right now, it’s that he showed a propensity to swing and miss. He was 10th in the ACC with 21 strikeouts. But with his defensive ability in CF and the rest of that offensive production, you’ll gladly trade that for some extra strikeouts. Those will decrease with more experience.

Kendall: I almost took Newell at #1 overall, that’s how bullish I am on this kid. One problem for the Hoos this season — their two best hitters, Gelof and Newell, are both strikeout prone. That’s something to monitor, and it’s important that the coaching staff is able to pepper in some reliable slap hitters (Rivoli) around these guys.

4 – Griff McGarry (RHP, Junior)

Kendall: This might be a reach at #4 overall, given the amount of talent on this roster… but McGarry was statistically our best pitcher in the Covid-shortened 2020 season, going 3-0 in his 4 starts, posting a 1.35 ERA, with 31 Ks across 20 innings worked. Project that forward though an entire season, and Griff is a bankable asset as a weekend starter and a potential staff ace.

As he continues to hone his once-ugly mechanics, he’s getting more and more fire on his fastball, now touching the mid-to-high 90s. His cutter, changeup, and slider are all very good, giving him a nice arsenal with which to attack batters. I think he’s a legit MLB prospect earmarked for a single-digit draft round in the summer of 2021, and he’s a guy Drew Dickinson can really weaponize for the Hoos this coming season.

Karl: It’s a testament to just how good McGarry’s stuff is when you compare his overall numbers to his Walks Per 9 Innings (8.6 in 2020, 8.8 in his UVA career per Baseball-Reference).

5 – Nate Savino (LHP, Freshman)

Karl: I only have one kid, but I swear this must be what people mean when they say something is like picking between your children. The roster is stacked with talent this year so it’s exceedingly difficult to decide on who to draft next. Enough whining, but man.

I went with enormous potential in Nate Savino here over long term proven results on the field. Assuming that both Abbott and McGarry have rotation spots held down for 2021, the battle between Mike Vasil and Nate Savino for that third spot is going to be tremendous.

I think Vasil probably gets the nod or perhaps it’s a timeshare. But there’s no denying Savino’s talent. He’d make a formidable weapon as a mid week starter (hopefully we get some of those games!) or as a bullpen lefty. As a freshman, Savino pitched just 10.2 innings but struck out 10. He also posted a 3.38 ERA. Not bad for someone that graduated high school a semester early and missed the crucial fall baseball period.

But check this, as a starter for UVA, Savino’s ERA drops to 1.93 in 9.1 innings pitched. And in his season finale against Top 10 NC State, Savino allowed just 1 earned run in 4.0 innings while striking out 2. There’s a reason why Savino is talked about as a high first round pick as early as 2022.

Kendall: Good lord, we are so loaded this season. I might actually put Abbott on notice, being that he already has the most relief experience. Nobody would be upset with a McGarry-Vasil-Savino weekend rotation. How do you best leverage your over-abundance of pitching talent? Hold a potential staff ace in reserve and bring him in out of the bullpen. I’ll say this — I’d be very upset if Savino ends up being burned each week as a midweek starter. God, this pitching staff is tailor-made for Omaha. Listen to what I’m saying Hoofans.

6 – Mike Vasil (RHP, Sophomore)

Kendall: Six picks deep into this draft, and we have four pitchers off the board. This staff is [potentially] bonkers bananas, you guys. Vasil started 12 games as a freshman and 4 as a sophomore in the abbreviated 2020 season. In 2019, it was a bit of a struggle to live up to expectations, as the ERA bloated out to 5.93, and just 40 Ks across 57 innings pitched.

2020 was much better, with a 2.45 ERA and 23 Ks. I love the jump up 2.30 SO/W in 2020, as well… and I think that’s the thing that projects most favorably for Vasil, as he dials in his mid-70s curve and upper-70s changeup to complement his 95 mph heat. I think he holds off Savino as our Sunday starter, at least to begin the season, but wherever he ends up pitching in the rotation, he’s a real weapon as a #3/#4 starter and Sborzian flex piece.

7 – Brendan Rivoli (C/OF, Junior)

Karl: It’s funny that the pitchers keep coming off the board because the Hoos’ offense can certainly be one of the top editions in the O’Connor era. I guess that proves the importance of pitching in baseball. In any event, I’m going with the annually underrated Rivoli.

I love his compact, left-handed swing and how the ball jumps off his bat. Rivoli’s versatility in the field really helps the UVA lineup go. You can play him in the corner outfield spots, behind the plate at catcher, and as the DH.

In a lineup that has more quality bats than spots available, versatility is going to be key in getting all deserving options a chance during the season. Rivoli’s contributions at the plate aren’t the type that generate a lot of social media hype, but if there’s one player on the team that exemplifies the do whatever it takes to win approach of the Hoos, it’s Rivoli.

His approach puts the team before his personal stats and you see that whether it’s playing injured like he did a good portion of the 2019 season, hitting a grounder to the right side to move the runner from 2nd to 3rd, or making sure to get a fly ball deep enough to score a runner from 3rd. In those types of situations, it would be easy to chase personal numbers but Rivoli’s apporach (and most of the Hoos, really) is what wins postseason baseball games. And that’s not to say that Rivoli doesn’t put up good numbers. In three seasons with the Hoos, he’s got a plus .800 OPS (.808), plus .300 batting average (.302), 21 career doubles, 7 career homers, and only 49 career strikeouts.

Kendall: Rivoli is a dude that baseball nerds are just always going to love. That swing is like candy. And he’s the “grit and grind / chip and a chair” guy for us like Kenny Towns was in 2015.

8 – Nic Kent (IF, Sophomore)

Kendall: We all saw him sparkle during his freshman season, and he’s still the same guy — solid 6-2 frame, nice athleticism, good-to-great defense, good speed, improving bat. Not sure he’s a slam dunk as the lead-off guy, but he belongs in the starting lineup and in a key batting role. If he’s our 4th best offensive player, we are in really good shape.

Karl: I love the role that Kent plays in our running game. He’s one of several Hoos that are a constant threat to steal a base, turn a long single into a double, or get from first to third on a base hit if the opposing OF is playing lazily. I love the pressure our running game can put on opposing defenses, pitchers, and catchers.

Kendall: It’s a great point, Karl. Our 2021 running game has the potential to be among the best Oak has brought to the table at UVA. Hoofans will remember, the running game was a major MAJOR part of our first decade of greatness under O’Connor.

9 – Logan Michaels (C, Senior)

Karl: Michaels isn’t going to put up awe inspiring numbers on offense, but he’ll still make contact (only 16 career strikeouts at UVA) and hit north of .300 (.313 BA at UVA). He was also driving in almost one run per game in 2020 (16 RBI in 18 games).

But where Michaels shines is behind the plate with his defense. His return to UVA for another season was a low key, major development. Not only will the defense behind the plate stay rock solid, but he and Rivoli will serve as excellent mentors this season to the younger catchers in the program. You can’t put a value on the defense and mentorship. Also worth mentioning is that Michaels won the Billy Word Memorial Award for team MVP in 2020.

Kendall: Logan Michaels : UVA :: Jake Taylor : Cleveland Indians in the movie Major League.

10 – Max Cotier (IF, Freshman)

Kendall: My man was the starting second baseman for 18 games as a true freshman in 2020, worked there this fall, and brings what clearly appears to be a plus-level bat (hit .338 in ’20) and plus-level speed to the two-hole in the lineup.

Karl: I love watching Cotier motor around the bases after hitting the ball in a gap. Or when he takes advantage of an outfielder that’s lazy getting the baseball back in to the infield.

Cotier is also proof positive that recruiting rankings are not definitive in baseball. Perfect Game ranked Max 441st in the 2019 recruiting class.

And then all he did as a freshman was post a .937 OPS (fourth on team), lead the ACC in triples (4), finish ninth in the ACC in hits (25), finish third in the ACC in runs scored (21), and finish tied for second in the ACC in sacrifice bunts (3). Max also added three stolen bases, three doubles, and one home run to his stat line. With the way he runs, expect those stolen base totals to go through the roof in 2021.

11 – Stephen Schoch (RHP, Super Duper Senior)

Karl: The UMBC grad transfer shared closer duties with Andrew Abbott in 2020. Despite that, he still picked up an ACC co-leading 5 saves. Schoch looks to hold down the closer job solo for his sixth season of college baseball in 2021.

Stephen, who pitches submarine style and has a NASTY slider, is also the most interesting player on the team. Check out his Twitter (@bigdonkey47) during the baseball season for some quality entertainment. Schoch also grew up a fan of UVA baseball and worked his ass off to get to Charlottesville to be part of the program (previously played at both Appalachian State and UMBC). He’s essentially living the dream for all of us fans.

Kendall: If you love Virginia Baseball, you love Steve Schoch. He’s close to entering Werman territory for me.

12 – Brandon Neeck (LHP, Super Duper Freshman)

Kendall: Top-100 recruit in 2018 who should be back to full strength after recovery from a torn labrum. I’m not sure where, exactly, he fits into this crowded rotation, but he’s a guy I’m pretty excited to see unleashed this season, and he’s a lefty, which I like (prefer?).

Neeck’s fastball is in the 90-93 range, with good command. A well-built slider is his main secondary offering, but he can also go to a pretty nice changeup, as well. I think he needs to build a bit more trust in his full arsenal, as he leaned a bit too much on the fastball as his out-pitch. I think he’s destined for a relief role (he works out of the stretch), but he has the makings of a powerful innings-eater and spot starter, the kind of guy who can put a good staff over the top and make it a great staff. In any case, to this point his college baseball career has been robbed from him by injury, and he’s a wildcard guy I’ll be watching closely and with great excitement this spring.

13 – Devin Ortiz (1B, Junior)

Karl: Ortiz entered the 2020 season with perhaps a bit too much hype. He finally got regular playing time in 2019 from the pitching mound and then had a monster summer in Florida with his bat. We thought he’d continue to be a two-way player for the Hoos and a budding star. Unfortunately, Ortiz was not in the pitching plans for UVA, at least during the early portions of the season.

Coach O’Connor did leave the door open for some action on the mound late in the season. But, alas, we didn’t make it that deep into the 2020 season.

Ortiz was the regular UVA 1B and still delivered a fine season with his bat (just not the nuclear numbers he put up over the summer). Ortiz posted a .821 OPS which was 9th best on the team and tied for the team lead with 13 walks. His 2 homers were were good for 5th best, his 14 RBI were also good for 5th best, and his 3 doubles were tied for 6th best on the team.

Both homers from Ortiz were grand slams. And per VirginiaSports.com, he’s only one of four UVA baseball players to hit two grand slams in the same season.

I expect Ortiz to hold down the 1B position this season and to be among the team leaders in most offensive categories. He’s also batting order versatile in that you can slot him in numerous spots and still find production.

Kendall: Ortiz is in sort of a “make-or-break” spot for the Cavaliers this spring. If he steps forward as a star, we’re one of the favorites for the natty. If he continues to be just a guy, then we might top out in a Super Regional. I’m glad he’s focusing on 1B and not pitching, as I think his highest upside is adding power and average to that bat.

14 – Alex Tappen (OF/1B/DH, Junior)

Kendall: Tappen is a guy who has mostly disappointed during his time at UVA, as a sub-.250 hitter to date. That being said, reports suggest that he hit the ball really well this fall, and he’s now been with the program long enough to have properly developed. He still has the power upside, and that’s sexy enough to draw my draft pick here. It’s unclear if Tappen is headed for a regular outfield role, or if he’ll be used at 1B and DH, or if he’ll even have a regular role at all. I think his time has arrived, and he’ll be a core piece of our lineup in 2021.

Karl: Tappen had a really nice freshman season for the Hoos when he changed positions to OF to help out the team when Cameron Simmons went down with a preseason shoulder injury that forced him to miss the 2018 season. Besides learning the Davenport RF on the fly, Tappen finished fourth on the team with 55 hits. He also finished second on the team with 13 doubles and tied for second in homers and RBI with 4 and 36, respectively. He slashed .262/.321/.390 that season.

The 2019 season was a lost one for him despite getting 34 starts in right field. And Tappen only played in 5 games and got 17 at bats during the abbreviated 2020 season. But, if the rumors of his resurgence are correct, his bat could make the difference between a damn fine team and a championship squad.

He’s also the winner of the 2020 Iron Cavalier Challenge.

15 – Paul Kosanovich (RHP, Senior)

Karl: All I need to know about Kosanovich is that in the rubber game of last year’s series with 7th ranked NC State, he struck out the 13th overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft (Patrick Bailey) and the Pack’s number two home run hitter and owner of a 1.121 OPS (Devonte Brown) with the bases loaded to secure the Hoos’ 7 to 2 advantage at that time. Bailey already had three grand slams to his name that season. In 8.1 innings of relief last season, Kosanovich posted an ERA of 2.16 while striking out 8. Batters hit only .161 against him. With his frame, experience, and guts, Paul can fill numerous roles on the UVA pitching staff. You could pitch him at closer or as an emergency starter. But he projects to be near the top of the middle relief pecking order for UVA in 2021.

Kendall: Great pick here, Karl. Kosanovich is a Waddell-ian bulldog, and you need that presence on any good pitching staff. He’ll be an important utility piece in the pitching staff, especially if we experience injury issues (as we always seem to) and/or Kenny Pow… er… Stephen Schoch regresses in the closer role.

16 – Billy Price (LHP, Sophomore)

Kendall: This is a complete shot in the dark and a reach at #16. Price pitched a grand total of three innings last season, with a 0.00 ERA and a .111 batting average for opponents. In 2019, it was 12 innings of 2.25 work with a .209 avg against. Price isn’t an overpowering strikeout pitcher, but he projects as a capable innings-eater out of the bullpen, and that’s a potentially valuable part of the staff.

Karl: I love the roll of the dice. Reports are that Price pitched well this fall. Like anyone that follows baseball, I can never have enough lefty relievers on the roster. And yeah, I’m kind of disappointed that my own kid is right handed.

17 – Marc Lebreux (OF, Junior)

Karl: I’ll take Lebreux to complete the starting OF. I think I expected a different sort of player when the Hoos signed the French Canadian from Seminole State Junior College (in Oklahoma?).

His stats at Seminole State suggested that he’d have more power in his bat, but during the shortened 2020 season we didn’t see that from Lebreux (0 homers, 5 doubles, .379 slugging percentage).

What we did get was a fine defensive outfielder that runs well, gets on base, and still handles the bat nicely. He finished in the top five for the Hoos in walks (tied first), stolen bases (tied third), on base percentage (fifth), runs scored (fourth), plate appearances (tied second), and sacrifice hits (tied first).

Lebreux also had the longest hit streak for UVA during the season (10 games), reached base in 16 of the 18 games played, and reached base in UVA’s final 15 games of the season. You find a way for that sort of player in your lineup.

Kendall: Lebreux was batting cleanup at the end of last season (game 18), and I think that speaks to what we have in his bat. The fact that he’s good defensively is really just gravy. This guy is really just a good baseball player, and frankly a steal at #17 in this draft.

18 – Kyle Teel (C, Freshman)

Kendall: He’s the headliner of the newly-arrived freshman class. I’m not sure there’s an immediate path to playing time this spring – given the presence of both Rivoli and Michaels – but the cream has a tendency to rise to the top, and Teel is at least a top-10 talent on this year’s club. He’s a high-percentage (and OBP) line drive hitter, a very good athlete, and brings fantastic defensive skills to the table.

Karl: Speaking of a steal….Teel is a future star for the Hoos. But like Kendall mentioned, there’s not a clear path to immediate playing time for the top 150 recruit / Gatorade New Jersey Player of the Year. That’s what happens with a stacked roster. But Teel is too good to ride pine all year. The staff will steal some innings behind the plate for Teel and get him at bats in the DH slot.

19 – Christian Hlinka (1B/OF/DH, Junior)

Karl: Speaking of DH options…Hlinka saw his first real playing time as a Hoo during the 2020 season and his bat was a revelation. I found myself begging the coaches to get Christian more opportunities at DH because he can mash!

Hlinka saw only 25 at bats but managed to tie for second on the team with 4 home runs. If he could have kept up even a fraction of that pace throughout the season, Hlinka would have put up ridiculous numbers.

In his limited action, he led the Hoos in slugging at .880 and finished second on the team in OPS at 1.250. And it’s not like Hlinka was a gorilla ball, meat head simply hacking for homers. He finished with a .320 batting average as well.

Hlinka did miss the 2019 season in its entirety due to a preseason ankle injury, so it’s not unexpected that it took him awhile to work his way into the lineup. The competition for DH at bats in 2021 among several good options is going to be fun!

Kendall: You only get 9 batters in the lineup, and we have 11 or 12 guys who probably merit a spot. I like Hlinka, but I don’t know who he beats out. That being said, we are absolutely insulated against potential injuries.

That wraps up Part One of our draft. Part Two will be coming up soon.

 

By Karl Hess

UVA sports fan since the mid 80s. Graduated from UVA in 2000. Currently residing in Virginia Beach. Also not the hoops ref.

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