Few dates on UVA’s schedule every season elicit more excitement than seeing UNC on the docket. A long time ACC Blue Blood, our annual clash with Carolina ranks right up there with seeing Duke as a measuring stick for our season and program, doubly so since it’s been UNC and Duke we’ve faced in all three of Bennett’s ACC Tournament Final appearances (1-1 against UNC, 1-0 against Duke). Carolina has clawed their way back to respectability this season after a humbling 2019-20, and will be looking to snap a long losing streak against Virginia and Bennett.

Game Details:

Date/Time: Saturday, February 13th, 6:00 pm EST
Location: John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA
TV: ESPN

What ‘They’ Say

Depth Chart:

Starters

Key Reserves

The ABC’s of UNC:

A) Their frontcourt is loaded with firepower. If there’s one thing you can count on year after year, it’s UNC featuring some really good bigs. They returned both of last year’s starters in the all-ACC Brooks and impressive former 5-star Bacot, then added two more 5-star rookies in Day’Ron Sharpe and Walker Kessler. Kessler has been slow to crack the rotation, but the other three have all been as good as advertised. Brooks, Bacot, and Sharpe are three of UNC’s top 4 scorers, their three leading rebounders (all over 7 a game), and the key to UNC’s ACC-leading 39% offensive rebounding rate. Additionally, Brooks is a solid shot blocker, 13th in the league in block rate currently. UVA has struggled when having to contain attacks featuring 2 quality bigs, like ND’s pairing of Juwan Durham and Nate Laszewski, who combined for 47 points against us in South Bend, so it will be a challenge for UVA to contain Carolina’s 3-headed monster that allows 2 at a time to be on the floor together at all times. The lone silver lining is that none of the three are major 3-point threats, combining for just 2-of-6 from deep throughout ACC play (Brooks has the only two makes).

B) Their guard rotation has taken time to come together. UNC’s best teams have always featured veterans at the point of attack who could both facilitate and defend. Think Joel Berry or Marcus Paige in the last decade. Due to a series of recruiting misses (Jalek Felton, Brandon Robinson, Seventh Woods, Andrew Platek), injuries (Anthony Harris), one-and-done 5-stars (Coby White, Cole Anthony), and one brief failed attempt at utilizing a grad transfer (Christian Keeling), UNC entered this season without a single experienced guard. Taking over at the point is ball-dominant 5-star Caleb Love who leads the team in shot-rate and usage, despite lacking efficiency (KenPom gives him a very subpar ORtg of 87.4 in ACC play, as he shoots just 34% on his 2’s and turns it over as frequently as he assists in ACC play). 4-star rookie RJ Davis has been up-and-down off the bench, and 4-star 2nd year Harris is just now getting back into form after an ACL tear last year. The real surprise this year has been the emergence of Kerwin Walton, the lowest-rated of UNC’s freshmen class, who’s utilized a great 3-point shooting touch (47% in league play on steady volume) to seize the starting 2-guard spot. As such, small forward Black, who is really more of a pure wing forward than a ball-handler, is the only veteran for the Heels on the perimeter.

C) They’ve snuck back into the discussion as a top ACC team. Last year UNC went 14-19 (6-14), lost in the opening round of the ACCT, and would’ve missed the Big Dance entirely had it been held. As the calendar flipped to 2021, UNC sat 5-4 (0-2), and as they managed just narrow single digit wins over bottom-to-mid-tier teams like ND (at home, by 1), Miami (road, by 2), and Cuse (home, by 6), no one was overly impressed by UNC this year either. Sure, they were better than last year, when Cole Anthony’s injuries put them in a hole they never climbed out of. But they also weren’t looking like Vintage Carolina this season either. But low and behold, near the midway point of February, UNC has won 7 of their last 9, which includes 3 road wins (Miami, Pitt, and Duke). All of a sudden they’ve climbed to 5th in the ACC standings, and 5th in the league per the computers. If Selection Sunday were today, they’d be in. So, again, this isn’t Vintage Carolina, Top 10 Final Four threat we’re talking about. But in a very down year for the top of the league, Carolina has found a way to get back into the thick of things, just a game and a half out of 2nd place with the home stretch left to make up that remaining distance. Carolina is gaining confidence and will be looking to continue building that momentum this weekend in Charlottesville.

Their season to date:

North Carolina is 12-6 on the season, 7-4 in ACC play. In the non-conference they took good neutral court wins over Stanford and Kentucky, while losing to now-top-ranked teams Iowa and Texas (road and neutral, respectively). They opened ACC play with back to back road losses at NC State and GT, but have gone 7-2 since, only losing at Clemson and FSU. Most recently they won a shootout over rival Duke before having their Monday match-up against Miami cancelled for COVID exposure concerns.

Keys to getting the win:

1) Neutralize UNC’s offensive rebounding. The first of two “UNC game keys that write themselves,” this Carolina squad is as dependent on offensive rebounds to buoy both their transition and their half-court offense as any in memory. UNC’s OR% of 40% is among the best in Roy’s tenure, with Sharpe and Bacot the true warriors on the glass, each ranking in the ACC’s Top 10 in individual OR%. Black and Brooks chip in respectable rates as well, so UVA’s front court (lumping in Murphy at the 3) will need to play it’s best defensive game yet on the glass. The Hoos recently allowed double-digit OR’s to Pitt, and did so to BC in January, both two of the ACC’s better 2nd-chance teams, so while we’ve got the ACC’s best defensive rebounding numbers, we’re susceptible to being bested by the really good clubs. One thing to watch here is who UVA turns to on the bench when Huff and Hauser need to sit; Shedrick re-debuted against GT but is he really up for UNC’s bigs yet? What about Caffaro or McKoy, older and more physical, but who don’t play a lot and could have rust?

2) Defend their fast breaks. The second “game key that writes itself,” UNC once again leads the ACC in tempo, running on every chance they get, off steals but also off most any defensive rebound. Their bigs are coached to immediately locate a guard upcourt with the pass and then all five players hustle to the opposite end. This particular club may not be the best at finishing in transition, but they bank on their trailing bigs and wings to be able to capitalize on the defense in scramble mode to attack off the secondary break before the half-court defense is set. UVA needs to get UNC to play half-court ball, surviving the first 10 seconds of the shot clock, where it can set up Pack Line and force UNC’s rookie guards to try and beat them the old fashioned way.

3) Dial in from 3. No surprise for a team that features just three upperclassmen in its 10-man rotation, but the Heels’ defense is spotty. KenPom puts them 6th in the league, respectable, but going through their individual focus areas there aren’t many places they stand out, middle of the road (though admittedly not bad either) in a number of key categories like 2P% allowed, block rate, foul rate, and live- and dead-ball turnover rate. But one area where they stand out as having a weakness is defending the 3-point line, where they’re 3rd worst in the league, allowing ACC foes to hit a collective 38.4%. UVA, of course, is one of the ACC’s best shooting clubs with a quartet of 44%+ 3P-shooters in league play (Huff, Hauser, Murphy, Woldetensae), and there’s no excuse for UVA not to use its deliberate offensive motions and ball movement to confuse UNC’s inexperienced defenders on rotation after rotation, especially using our stretch bigs to draw UNC’s post defenders out of the paint, to create open looks for a variety of our players. When we get those open looks, of course, we then need to see them go in.

Predictions:

Virginia is riding a 6 game winning streak against the Heels, which stretches back to a February 2017 loss in Chapel Hill. UNC’s last win in JPJ was February of 2012. Given the relative histories of this program, these are of course incredible streaks. UVA comes into this game the solid favorite to keep both streaks alive. But is it a given?

It’s no secret that Carolina teams can be gummed up by Bennett’s signature grinding, low pace style. In 2017 when Carolina would go on to win the national title and UVA was falling apart down the stretch, the Hoos still managed to stick it to Carolina for a 53-43 UVA victory in JPJ. Just 11 days ago, UNC went to Clemson where they faced another grinding foe, being held to 65 possessions, just 7 ORs, en route to a 13 point loss to the Tigers.

So this UVA team certainly deserves to be the favorite in this one, based not only on its better record this year, but it’s historical record at home against UNC as well. But this is still a UNC team that’s improving, it’s freshman tandem guard rotation improving slowly but steadily as they move deeper into ACC play. And UVA’s front court has given up way too many big scoring nights to opposing big men. So there’s reason to think UNC has a real puncher’s chance to put it to UVA.

Which means the key here is for UVA to want this, as transition defense and rebounding are so much about hustle and focus, getting back on D before their guards can get in the open floor, getting a hard box out on a forward the second the shot goes up.

This is UVA’s most high profile game since Gonzaga, against a name opponent in prime time on the flagship ESPN, with Dick Vitale doing the color commentary no less (take that however you will). But of course because it’s 2021 there’s no roaring JPJ atmosphere, no College Gameday, to get the team hyped. My X-Factor is I’m going to be looking to see how hyped, how hungry this team is out of the gate.

Virginia’s been on the road most of the last two weeks and will be the road for a week again after Saturday. I am going to choose to believe they take this home opportunity seriously, dialing in the Pack Line to frustrate UNC’s rookie guards, heat checking the Carolina forwards just enough on the glass, and running patient offense to get Hauser and Huff hot to carry us home.

Hoos Win – 70-62