Virginia bookends its February with games against NC State. To start the month, the Hoos went to Raleigh to win a hard-fought battle over the depleted Wolfpack. Today they look to return the favor. Virginia is on its first losing streak since January of 2020, so let’s see what they need to do to regain positive momentum this week.

Game Details:

Date/Time: Saturday, February 24th, 6:30 pm EST
Location: John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA
TV: ACCN

What ‘They’ Say

Depth Chart:

Starters

Key Reserves

The ABC’s of NCSU:

A) They’ve reshuffled their starting lineup. When we saw NC State a few weeks ago, they started Beverly, Allen, Seabron, Hellems, and Bates. In their most recent game against Wake, their starting lineup was Hayes, Seabron, Hellems, Funderburk, and Bates. There’s a few takeaways here. First, the senior Beverly has been benched in favor of high-rated freshman and PG-of-the-future Hayes, and in the last two games is averaging 11 points, 7 assists, and 3 steals a game. Thomas Allen has missed two games with a leg injury and his status for tonight is uncertain, though he’s likely a starter if healthy. They’ve elected to go jumbo with their lineups, moving the mercurial Funderburk into the starting lineup to go twin-towers at the 4-5, and then put two long wing-forwards at the 2 and 3 with Hellems and Seabron. With the 6’9″ Trey Murphy at the 3 for Virginia, the jumbo lineup isn’t quite the mismatch it is for many Pack opponents, but asking Beekman to guard Seabron could be interesting.

B) Turnovers have been killing them. They’re among the worst teams in the conference in losing the ball, 14th with an overall TO% of nearly 21%, meaning they turn it over on worse than 1 in 5 possessions. They’re prone to committing both dead- and live-ball variations, with rookie guards Hayes and Moore the worst offenders, but veterans Allen and Beverly have been inconsistent as well. Even though the Hoos’ defense isn’t geared towards turnover generation, they still forced 12 in the first match-up, and making the Wolfpack make mistakes with the ball will go a long way to helping UVA finish the sweep.

C) They want to play at the rim. State isn’t an offense built around the long ball. Less than a third of their FGA’s come from deep, the 3rd lowest rate in the league, and they don’t have anyone you’d necessarily classify as a gunner. As a team they do shoot a healthy percentage from long range, 35.3% collectively in ACC play, though the now-injured Devon Daniels had helped that with his 42% shooting in January. Neither of their true bigs (Bates and Funderburk) are long range threats, nor is Seabron (those three have combined for just two made 3’s in ACC play). Hellems can hit 3’s, as evidenced by his 40% ACC rate and 3-of-6 night against UVA three weeks ago, though he’d still rather play downhill, nearly 70% of his attempts coming from 2. The guards can all hit at respectable rates, as shown in the roster/stats breakdown above, though none are true snipers, nor shoot at high volume. Virginia will of course need to pay attention to containing the perimeter, as hot-shooting nights from opponents have doomed us a few times already this season, but on paper State would need to do so at a much higher volume than they usually do.

Their season to date:

NC State is 10-9 on the season, 6-8 in ACC play. They’ve gone 3-2 since losing to UVA in Raleigh, losing two at home to Syracuse and Duke but winning a trio against bottom-half ACC clubs BC, Pitt, and most recently Wake Forest.

Keys to getting the win:

1) Win the glass. NC State uses their size and athleticism to be a top-half ACC team on the offensive glass. In our first game against the Pack, they grabbed 11 offensive rebounds against UVA, giving them more 2nd chance looks than we would’ve liked. Funderburk and Bates are both in the Top 15 of the league in offensive rebounding, and Hellems and Seabron provide good punch there as well. UVA did well protecting the glass against Duke but struggled in recent weeks against Pitt and UNC, so it must again be stressed as a focus area.

2) Get bench production. In our first win over State, our bench gave us only 22 combined minutes, 0 points, 1 rebound, 2 turnovers, and a couple fouls. That needs to change. Tomas Woldetensae will be out again for contact tracing, meaning Casey Morsell will be our lone option off the bench. He looked okay against Duke, but we’ll need good minutes from him, especially with Reece Beekman’s production being stagnant lately. Against State’s big lineup, there will also be a need to see our reserve bigs, Caffaro, McKoy, and/or Shedrick, give us solid defense and opportunistic offense when Huff, Hauser, or Murphy are taking a break.

3) Ball security. Virginia committed double-digit turnovers in both losses last week. NC State uses its length aggressively to pressure the ball and as such has the 2nd highest defensive turnover rate in the ACC along with the 3rd highest live-ball steal rate. Kihei has had at least 3 TOs in each of four of the last five games (UNC the exception), though there’s plenty of blame to go around, both guards and bigs. The Hoos still have one of the better offensive turnover rates in the ACC, but that’s been trending downward the last couple weeks as opponents have shown you can effectively attack our ball movement with pressure.

Predictions:

This has to be a bounce back game. Virginia is still undefeated at home this year, as home court advantages around college basketball seem to be amplified this year. UVA’s been on the road 5 of the last 7 games, going 4-3 over that stretch, 2-3 away from JPJ (losses at VT, FSU, and Duke). But against NC State, at home again finally, UVA should be able to get back in the win column.

State will be hungry. They’re on a 2-game win streak, and while it’s only against Pitt and Wake, both were road games for the Pack so they’ll be confident they can get the win at JPJ too. The talent is there, and UVA’s struggled against big men all season, though the lack of stretch threat from Bates, Funderburk, and Seabron does give UVA some advantage defensively. Look for them to gum up State’s ball movement and, assuming we can keep the State bigs off the offensive glass, hold them under 60 again.

Can UVA’s offense rebound? State played us tough last time out and Virginia’s ball movement and shooting has been stagnant in stretches. State has the length to protect the rim from even the wing spots, so inverting the offense with Huff and Hauser alone isn’t enough to create space in the paint. Tony will need to be creative in scheming ways to get good looks for all involved.

I do think we get back in the win column, but doubt it’s as pretty as many of our January wins were. State again plays us tough through 30 minutes before UVA creates space down the stretch.

Hoos Win – 65-57