UVA opened its 2021 College World Series with a thrilling 6 to 0 win over national 3 seed Tennessee.

Sunday funday in Omaha! #GoHoos pic.twitter.com/T8g8e4r3Jt

— Virginia Baseball (@UVABaseball) June 22, 2021

After advancing into the winner’s bracket, an old foe is waiting.

Mississippi State, winners of the 2013 Charlottesville Super Regional, awaits the Hoos in a game to determine which team takes control of Bracket Two in Omaha. The Bulldogs are national seed 7.

Game Schedule

Tuesday, June 22 – 7:00 PM

Team Records

Virginia: 36-25 (Overall), 18-18 (ACC)

Mississippi State: 46-16 (Overall), 20-10 (SEC)

Common Opponents

The Hoos and Bulldogs share four common opponents on the season: Notre Dame, VCU, South Carolina, and Tennessee.

Mississippi State went 0-1 against Tennessee during the SEC Tournament. UVA is 1-0 against Tennessee after Sunday’s win in the College World Series.

Mississippi State went 2-1 against South Carolina during the regular season. UVA is 1-1 against South Carolina with both games coming during the Columbia Regional.

Mississippi State went 1-0 against VCU during the Starkville Regional. UVA went 0-2 against the Rams during the regular season.

Mississippi state went 2-1 against Notre Dame during the Starkville Super Regional. UVA went 1-3 against Notre Dame during the season. The Irish swept the three game series during the regular season. The Hoos went 1-0 against Notre Dame during the ACC Tournament.

Stat Comparison

Stats and rankings are as of games completed through June 20, 2021.

Batting

OBP = On Base Percentage

SLG = Slugging Percentage

Pitching

K/9 = Strikeouts Per 9 Innings

BB/9 = Walks Per 9 Innings

Miscellaneous

FLD % = Fielding Percentage

SOS = Strength Of Schedule

Note that all stats are from NCAA.com. Strength of schedule data is from Warrennolan.com and is as of games played through June 20, 2021.

Ballpark Comparison

How do the home parks of Mississippi State and UVA compare to TD Ameritrade in Omaha?

Projected Starting Pitchers

Mississippi State LHP Christian MacLeod (6-5, 4.24 ERA, 80.2 IP, 29 walks, 113 strikeouts) vs UVA RHP Griff McGarry (0-5, 6.06 ERA, 35.2 IP, 40 walks, 61 strikeouts)

In some ways, MacLeod is the Brandon Neeck of the Bulldogs’ pitching staff.

Stick with me.

Both Neeck and MacLeod are lefties that entered college in the fall of 2018 and took redshirts during the 2019 season. And they’re both college juniors whose eligibility clocks still count as freshmen due to the 2019 redshirt and 2020 COVID season. But each pitcher stands on their own after that.

MacLeod broke out during the abbreviated 2020 season. In 4 starts, in 4 appearances, MacLeod posted a 0.86 ERA and 4-0 record for the Bulldogs. He threw 21.0 innings in which he walked 6 and struck out 35. Opposing batters hit .127 against MacLeod during the 2020 season.

Those numbers earned him impressive accolades at the conclusion of the season. Collegiate Baseball Newspaper named MacLeod Freshman All-American as well as Co-National Freshman Player of the Year. Collegiate Baseball Newspaper also named him Third Team All-American.

MacLeod has made 17 starts in as many appearances in 2021. Opposing batters are hitting .234 against him during the 2021 season.

He’s been in the weekend rotation all season for the Bulldogs. Most recently, MacLeod has served as a frontline starting pitcher for Mississippi State during the postseason to include the SEC Tournament, Starkville Regional, and Starkville Super Regional.

In his last start against Notre Dame, a 9 to 1 win by the Irish, MacLeod pitched 5.0 innings. During those 5.0 innings, he gave up 7 runs (6 earned) while taking the loss. Against the Irish, MacLeod surrendered 5 hits and 2 walks while striking out 7.

D1 Baseball’s lead scout David Seifert got a good look at the 6-4 227 pound lefty during the season’s opening weekend. Mississippi State participated in the State Farm College Baseball Showdown at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. Seifert saw MacLeod throw in the Bulldogs’ season opener against Texas, an 8 to 3 win for Mississippi State.

MacLeod pitched 4.0 innings against the Longhorns where he gave up just 1 run (earned). He also gave up 6 hits and no walks while striking out 7.

Seifert saw MacLeod’s fastball sit consistently in the upper 80s at 88 to 89 MPH. He also used a changeup that sat 79 to 82 MPH. Seifert noted that MacLeod also used a curveball that he threw in the mid 70s.

Seifert noted that MacLeod’s stuff isn’t especially imposing. But what sets him apart is impeccable control. MacLeod uses his ability to pinpoint his pitches to keep a batter’s eye constantly moving – inside and out or up and down in the zone.

When we asked Eric Longenhagen on our show this week about who to watch for the 2021 draft, he said #Orioles fans should watch Mississippi State, which is great because I already do.

Here's some 1st inning work from LHP Christian MacLeod tonight. pic.twitter.com/2PDO3Sicbd

— The Verge- An Orioles MiLB Podcast (@BSLOnTheVerge) March 13, 2021

Weather Forecast Via Weather.com

Look for temps in the upper 80s at the start of the game. But those temps will quickly drop into the lower 80s to upper 70s over the first few innings.

Skies will be cloudy as isolated and scattered thunderstorms are in the forecast beginning an hour before first pitch. The chance of storms and precipitation are about 30% before slowly increasing to nearly 50% by 9:00 PM. The threat of storms won’t fully leave the area until around 11:00 PM local time in Omaha.

Winds will be around 10 MPH throughout the game.

Media Coverage

The game broadcast will be on ESPN2. ESPN will also carry streaming on their various streaming platforms.

The radio broadcast will be carried on WINA.com or over the air in the Charlottesville area by WINA on 98.9 FM or 1070 AM.

Bulldog To Watch

Senior outfielder, and SEC Player of the Year, Tanner Allen gets the spotlight here. In addition to SEC Player of the Year honors, Allen was also named First Team All-SEC.

Allen features a .386 / .457 / .623 slash line along with a 1.08 OPS. His .386 batting average is tops among Bulldog regulars. He also owns the top on base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS in the Mississippi State lineup.

Allen also tops the Bulldogs in hits (91), triples (5), and RBI (62). He’s second on the team in runs scored (64), doubles (16), stolen bases (9, tied), and times being hit by pitch (13). Allen also has 10 home runs on the season which places him tied for third on the Bulldogs’ roster.

Tanner Allen absolutely HAMMERED that!#RoadToOmaha x ? ESPN pic.twitter.com/pPtoqAcajO

— NCAA Baseball (@NCAABaseball) June 12, 2021

Prediction

The formula for UVA wins in this postseason is pretty simple – excellent pitching paired with some timely hitting.

I don’t see anything in this matchup that suggests much deviation from the norm.

The Hoos would be wise to get a lead against MacLeod in order to avoid ace reliever Landon Sims in a situation where runs need to be made up against the bullpen. Sims did pitch 3.0 innings against Texas in Mississippi State’s CWS opener on Sunday evening. But there’s no way to predict how little or much the State coaching staff is willing to use Sims in this game.

If UVA can avoid big games from Tanner Allen and catcher Logan Tanner, I like their chances.

The Hoos stay in the winner’s bracket after this game goes final.