Welcome back to our 2021 Football Season Preview. To view our preview table of contents and read already-completed pieces, click here.

Counting down the days until the season kicks off, we’re ready to start breaking down the schedule game-by-game, with summaries of each team we’ll face and our confidence level in the Hoos to get that win. Today, we’ll tackle the first four games of the 12-game slate.

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Date: Saturday, September 4th

William and Mary

Location: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA

2021 Spring Record: 1-2 (1-2 CAA)

Last Meeting: Virginia 52, William and Mary 17, 9/6/19 at Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA

Season Prediction: Media that cover the CAA pegged the Tribe 11th out of 12 league teams.

Strengths: Experience. According to The Virginian-Pilot, every starter returns for the Tribe. One of those is QB Hollis Mathis. In two spring 2021 games, Mathis completed 60.8% of his passes for 379 yards, two TDs, and no INTs. He also ran for 92 yards and a score. Mathis led the CAA in total offense at 232 yards per game. He missed the final contest against JMU with a shoulder injury. Third-year coach Mike London, the former big whistle at UVa, said Mathis is still recovering. If he can’t start the season, the Tribe could turn to a transfer QB — they picked up two in the offseason in Kevin Doyle (Arizona) and Cole Northup (Lafayette). Mathis, a junior, did play in the last meeting with UVa in 2019. He didn’t complete any of his four pass attempts, was picked off once, and got sacked five times. But the rest of Mathis’ true freshman season went pretty well. The Pittsburgh native rushed for 546 yards (the most by a W&M true freshman since ex-NFL RB Jonathan Grimes in 2008) and a true freshman school-record eight TDs. He completed 44.8% of his passes for 976 yards (also a true freshman school record), four TDs, and three INTs as W&M went 5-7.

As a true freshman in the spring, RB Malachi Imoh gained 9.2 yards per carry on 16 attempts and led the team with 148 yards in just two games. Imoh’s uncle, Mike, was a running back at Virginia Tech from 2002-05. UVa transfer Cole Blackman (who spent the 2019 season at Illinois State) led the receiving corps with 12 catches for 194 yards and a score.

Defensively, DL Carl Fowler led the team in the spring with three tackles for losses. In 2019, Fowler collected 36 tackles, six for losses, three sacks, and three QB hurries. All-CAA preseason kick returner Bronson Yoder averaged 26.9 yards per kickoff return and scored two TDs in ’19.

Weaknesses: W&M’s passing offense and passing defense need work. In 2019, the team finished last in the CAA by a wide margin in passing offense. In the spring, it did improve to eighth. The Tribe need Mathis to continue to improve as a passer. W&M’s passing defense finished 11th in 2019 but did move up to fourth in the spring. However, the defense was worst in the conference at getting off the field on third down. Also, W&M just needs to find a way to score more points. The Tribe were seventh in points per game in 2019 and fell to ninth in the spring. Generating more turnovers could help, where W&M is in the middle of the pack. Field goal kicking was also an issue in 2019, with the Tribe connecting on just 9 of 19.

Summary Thoughts: William and Mary may have all its starters back and an improving QB, but like always, this is a game Virginia needs to win, and the more dominant it is, the better. Hopefully UVa shows up strong and sharp in the first half and puts the game away quickly so that backups can get valuable time in the second half, and the starters can rest and not risk injury.

Win Confidence (1 to 10): 9.5

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Date: Saturday, September 11th

Illinois

Location: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA

2020 Record: 2-6 (2-6 Big Ten)

Last Meeting: Illinois 63, Virginia 21, 12/30/99 at MicronPC.com Bowl, Miami, FL

The Athletic Preseason Big Ten Ranking: 7th in the B1G West

The Athletic State of the Program ($): Link

CFN Preseason Conference Ranking: 7th in the B1G West

CFN National Ranking: 68th of 130

CFN team preview: Link

Athlon Preseason Conference Ranking: 7th in the B1G West

Athlon National Ranking: 83rd of 130

Athlon Team Preview: Link

Strengths: New coach Bret Bielema (the former leader of the Wisconsin and Arkansas programs) loves a physical run game, and he’s got a good foundation for one at Illinois. Despite a subpar 2020, Illinois featured a strong attack that finished third in yards per game in the Big Ten. Chase Brown, only a redshirt sophomore this year, was named third-team all-Big Ten after rushing for 540 yards and three TDs and catching seven passes for 64 yards.

The line features a pair of fifth-year seniors in LT Vederian Lowe and RT Alex Palczewski. Lowe was honorable mention all-Big Ten last season, and Palczewski made the third team in 2019 but tore his ACL last season. At center, sixth-year senior Doug Kramer was named to the honorable mention squad in 2020.

This is another experienced roster. Despite a coaching change as the Fighting Illini fired Lovie Smith and brought in Bielema, there has not been much turnover. Illinois brings back 17 scholarship seniors, the most for a Power Five team. One of the oldest is Brandon Peters, a former Michigan QB going into his sixth season. The 6-foot-5, 220-pound Peters transferred to Illinois before the 2019 campaign. In two seasons, he’s completed 53.8% of his passes for 2,313 yards, 21 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. While he could stand to be more accurate, he does seem to do a good job of avoiding picks. He’s also added 349 rushing yards and four more scores on the ground.

The Illini’s defensive strength centers on fumble-forcing extraordinaire and tackling machine Jake Hansen at MLB. Hansen is entering his sixth season. Last year, he paced the unit with 68 tackles, 10 for losses, 2.5 sacks, two interceptions, two breakups, and two forced fumbles. In 2019, he played in nine games and racked up 72 tackles, 7.5 for losses, 3.5 sacks, an INT, and a nation-leading seven forced fumbles. In 2018, he tied for the team lead with 95 stops.

Fifth-year senior Owen Carney Jr. will play at OLB in the Illini’s new 3-4 scheme after playing DE in the 4-3 in 2020. He recorded seven tackles for losses and five sacks and was named second-team all-Big Ten. DB Sydney Brown had 36 tackles a season ago, but in 2019 he was all-Big Ten third team after posting 88 tackles and three INTs.

Both kicker James McCourt and punter Blake Hayes are all-Big Ten performers.

Weaknesses: Illinois needs to find some playmakers at wide receiver. It was last in the Big Ten in passing offense a season ago. Leading receiver Josh Imatorbhebhe, a former USC transfer, is off to the NFL. His brother, Daniel, has transferred to Kansas State. The Illini did get some good news in getting Casey Washington (10 catches in 2020) back in the transfer portal. He left to go to Wake Forest in the spring but returned to Illinois in the summer. The Illini hope Brian Hightower (11 catches, three TDs in ’20) takes the next step. Otherwise, they are going to rely on a mishmash of transfers and position-switchers: former walk-on and Valparaiso transfer Donny Navarro III (35 catches over two seasons with Illinois), Isaiah Williams, who committed as a QB but has impressed as a wideout in the offseason, former DBs Khmari Thomson and Marquez Beason, and Notre Dame grad transfer Jafar Armstrong.

The team needs to score more points. It put up 20 points per game a season ago, simply not enough for modern college football.

But the offense at least has a strong running game and a veteran QB. The defense needs more of a complete overhaul after ranking eighth in the conference against the pass, last against the run, and next to last in points allowed per game. With the system change, I think it is fair to say this unit will struggle, especially early in the season, and Virginia needs to take advantage.

Summary Thoughts: Illinois has not been a good team in a long time. It has posted two .500 regular-season records in the past nine seasons. The last time the Illini won seven games was 2011. Any game against a Power Five opponent still feels like a toss-up for UVa, but this feels like one the Wahoos need to win if they are going to have a successful season.

A couple of factors give me pause, though: First is Bielema’s past success in the Big Ten at Wisconsin. I feel pretty confident in saying he will turn Illinois around. It could take a couple of seasons, but bowl games will be in the program’s future, and there’s no reason it can’t challenge for a spot near the top of the division. Even at Arkansas in the tough SEC West, though he got fired, Bielema did get the Razorbacks to three consecutive bowl games. The second reason ties into the first: The first year of a new coaching regime can often be a year of transition that brings a losing record, especially for a program that hasn’t had much recent success — see UVa in 2016 — but this situation feels a little bit different since the staff was able to get so many seniors to buy in and return in spite of the transfer-happy world in which college football now lives. That was a noteworthy accomplishment by Bielema. So could this veteran group led by a confident new coach who knows how to win in the Big Ten come into Scott Stadium and beat UVa? Yes, but I do feel pretty good about this game.

Win Confidence (1 to 10): 6.5

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Date: Saturday, Saturday 18th

North Carolina

Location: Kenan Memorial Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC

2020 Record: 8-4 (7-3 ACC)

Last Meeting: Virginia 44, North Carolina 41, 10/31/20 at Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA

The Athletic Preseason ACC Ranking: 1st in the Coastal

The Athletic State of the Program ($): Link

CFN Preseason Conference Ranking: 1st in the Coastal

CFN National Ranking: 12th of 130

CFN team preview: Link

Athlon Preseason Conference Ranking: 1st in the Coastal

Athlon National Ranking: 10th of 130

Athlon Team Preview: Link

Strengths: Starting with Sam Howell is a duh here. As a sophomore in 2020, Howell completed 68.1% of his passes (15th nationally) for 3,586 yards (13th), 30 touchdowns (sixth), and seven interceptions as the Tar Heels boasted the ACC’s best offense in terms of yards per game and its second best in terms of points, behind Clemson. Howell also rushed for 146 yards and five more scores. Howell has 68 passing TDs, the best mark through any ACC QB’s first two seasons. He broke the previous record of 66 TDs for Trevor Lawrence in his first two seasons, and Lawrence had 30 games to pile up TDs compared to 25 for Howell.

One QB that will be battling for the backup role is four-star true freshman Drake Maye, younger brother of former North Carolina basketball star Luke. Their dad, Mark, was a QB for UNC in the 1980s.

I am going to include the offensive line as a strength and as a weakness. It is a strength because every starter returns. It might be a weakness because Howell was sacked 33 times last year, with UNC tied for 101st nationally, giving up 2.83 sacks per game. But some of that may have been Howell holding onto the ball too long. Offensive coordinator Tim Longo said Howell worked on his pocket presence in the offseason.

The Fox brothers key a defense that returns a lot of experience and was solid but is looking to be better and more disruptive. Senior OLB Tomon Fox collected 36 tackles, 10.5 for losses, seven sacks, seven QB hurries, and one forced fumble in 2020. His younger brother, junior DL Tomari, recorded 46 tackles, six for losses, four sacks, and three QB hurries. MLB Jeremiah Gemmel, a senior, was second on the team with 78 tackles, six for losses, 2.5 sacks, one pick, four breakups, seven QB hurries, and a forced fumble.

UNC defensive coordinator Jay Bateman said the team feels like it has four cornerbacks capable of starting the opener against Virginia Tech: Tony Grimes, Storm Duck, Kyler McMichael, and Ladaeson DeAndre Hollins. Duck was limited to just two games last season because of injury, breaking up two passes. In 2019, he started nine games as a true freshman and tallied 37 tackles, two for losses, two INTs, five breakups, and one QB hurry. The unit feels good about its safeties, too — Ja’Qurious Conley and Trey Morrison. As primarily a nickelback in 2020, Conley collected 35 tackles, two for losses, one sack, a breakup and a QB hurry. Morrison had 39 tackles, two for losses, one sack, one INT, three breakups, and one QB hurry. Cam’Ron Kelly appeared in all 12 games last year and started four but still finished third on the team with 55 tackles. He acts as a Swiss Army knife in the secondary.

Weaknesses: UNC must replace its top four skill position players in RBs Javonte Williams and Michael Carter (a combined 2,385 yards and 28 TDs) and WRs Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome (a combined 109 receptions for 1,783 yards and 14 TDs). Howell is UNC’s leading returning rusher — not ideal — and no other returning receiver caught more than 15 passes a year ago.

In the backfield, the Tar Heels will turn to Tennessee transfer Ty Chandler to help fill some of the void left by Williams and Carter. Chandler enjoyed a productive four-year career as a Vol: 2,046 rushing yards, 13 TDs, and 58 catches with three receiving TDs. At receiver, UNC will need more out of Khafre Brown (Dyami’s younger brother who pulled down 15 catches and two scores in ’20), Beau Corrales (13 catches and a TD in five games last year before he got hurt), and Josh Downs (seven catches and three TDs in ’20). The Heels will also likely look to get TE Garrett Walston more involved after he grabbed 19 receptions for a pair of scores last season.

As I mentioned previously, it remains to be seen whether the OL is a strength or weakness. There is certainly experience, but it needs to protect Howell better, and he needs to be a bit better at getting rid of the ball quickly.

The defense will miss the leadership of leading tackler Chazz Surratt, an all-ACC first-teamer at MLB (91 stops, 7.5 for losses, six sacks, one pick, three breakups, six QB hurries, and a forced fumble). The defense was middle of the road last season in points allowed and passing defense. UNC was in the bottom third of the league in forcing turnovers, a focus area in the offseason for Bateman and coach Mack Brown.

Grayson Atkins made just 12 of his 18 field goals a year ago, ranking 12th in the ACC.

Summary Thoughts: Virginia’s 44-41 victory over North Carolina in ’20 was the Wahoos’ biggest win and at least helped them finish with a respectable .500 record. UNC was supposed to win that game, and it is supposed to win this year’s matchup, too. But the Cavaliers’ confidence should be high coming into this contest because they have beaten the Heels in four straight games, and they’ll have an extra boost if they can enter Kenan Stadium at 2-0. Right off the bat, UNC faces Virginia Tech on the road. If the Heels win that game, they’ll likely defeat Georgia State the next week, and then the ‘Hoos will have a chance at knocking off a top-10 team on the road. This should be a fun game and a great opportunity for Virginia. Though the 2020 campaign was solid, UNC is starting to enter “prove it” territory — prove you are the best team in the division and also that you can beat UVa. Howell is terrific, but can his defense, offensive line, and new skill players step up and help him guide the team to a truly special season?

Certainly, Howell will test UVa’s revamped pass D. It got torched last season but was bailed out by two UNC fumbles, a fantastic performance by Charles Snowden, and an offense that caught fire. UVa has scored 41 points per game in the past two meetings with the Heels, and unless UNC shows major improvement on defense, we can probably expect another shootout.

Normally, I would not feel too confident about a road game against a probable top-10 opponent. I think you have to give UNC the edge, but it’s close. Perhaps the ‘Hoos are beginning to get a bit of a psychological hold over the Heels, much like the Hokies seemingly have on the ‘Hoos. It’s getting to be that time when North Carolina needs to back up the lofty expectations. The Heels are media darlings, but they have yet to pass the eight-win mark during Brown’s second stop in Chapel Hill, and the last time he won at least 10 games was 2009, when Texas lost in the national title game. That’s a long time ago. The program has had a two-win season more recently (2018) than an 11-win season (2015). Should North Carolina be the Coastal favorite? Sure. A top-10 team? Eh, I’m in wait-and-see mode. If UNC beats UVa handily, takes the division, and wins 10 games, I’ll shut up. But for now, I think it’s just as likely if not more so that the ‘Hoos and Heels play another classic.

Win Confidence (1 to 10): 4

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Date: Friday, September 24th

Wake Forest

Location: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA

2020 Record: 4-5 (3-4 ACC)

Last Meeting: Wake Forest 40, Virginia 23, 10/17/20 at Truist Field, Winston-Salem, NC

The Athletic Preseason ACC Ranking: 5th in the Atlantic

The Athletic State of the Program ($): Link

CFN Preseason Conference Ranking: 5th in the Atlantic

CFN National Ranking: 52nd of 130

CFN team preview: Link

Athlon Preseason Conference Ranking: 6th in the Atlantic

Athlon National Ranking: 48th of 130

Athlon Team Preview: Link

Strengths: Guess what? The Demon Deacons boast an experienced roster. Sensing a theme? Because of super seniors, many teams appear to be more experienced than ever before. Wake returns 18 starters, including nine on offense, and it would have returned all 11 on offense, but coach Dave Clawson announced at ACC media day that WR Donavon Greene and OL Je’Vionte’ Nash were out with season-ending injuries. At QB, the Deacons return Sam Hartman, a redshirt sophomore. In 2020, Hartman completed 58.2% of his passes for 2,224 yards, 13 touchdowns, and five interceptions. Four picks came in the Deacons’ bowl loss versus Wisconsin. He only started a couple of games in place of Jamie Newman in 2019, but in 2018, Hartman was the man as a true freshman until breaking his leg late in the season. In each of his three seasons, Hartman has improved his completion percentage, passing yardage, and TD-INT ratio. Wake’s offense put up 36 points per game last year, a program record.

The offense returns leading rusher Christian Beal-Smith, who piled up 732 yards (5.2 ypc) and five TDs last year and also caught five passes. The unit also brings back leading receiver Jaquarii Roberson and his 62 catches for 926 yards and eight scores in ’20 as well as Taylor Morin (32 receptions, 405 yards, three TDs). In addition to those weapons, Clawson has quipped the offensive line can apply for Social Security because the starters are back, with a “sixth-year guy, three fifth-year guys, and a fourth-year guy.”

Wake’s defensive strength begins with the old man of the group — and I do mean old. DT Miles Fox is somehow entering his seventh collegiate football season. In 2020, Fox recorded 24 tackles, 10.5 for losses, 3.5 sacks, one breakup, one QB hurry, and one forced fumble. Defensive end Jacorey Johns returns after tallying 32 tackles, 6.5 for losses, two sacks, and three QB hurries.

At linebacker, Ryan Smenda Jr. returns after posting 52 stops, five for losses, a sack, three QB hurries, and a forced fumble. In the secondary, Clawson thinks CB Ja’Sir Taylor is one of the ACC’s most underrated corners. In 2020, Taylor recorded 42 tackles, two interceptions, and six breakups. At safety, Nick Andersen was third-team all-ACC as a true freshman after tallying 63 tackles, four picks, and five breakups.

Nick Sciba made 14 of his 17 field goals with a long of 46 yards in ’20 and was a Lou Groza Award semifinalist. Sciba holds the NCAA record for consecutive made fields goals (34), which he did over his first two seasons (2018-19). He’s the most accurate kicker in ACC history at 89.1% (minimum of 50 attempts). Wake led the league last season with a 23.5-yard KR average, though the injured Greene was responsible for most of that success (34-yard return average and one TD on seven attempts). Morin was third in punt return average (9.6 yards).

Weaknesses: Though Beal-Smith returns at RB, his running mate Kenneth Walker III (579 yards, 13 TDs) transferred to Michigan State, so Wake will need to develop some depth behind Beal-Smith. One guy the Deacons will turn to is Michigan transfer Christian Turner. He barely played last season for the Wolverines, but in 2019, he did manage 171 yards and a score. Also, Justice Ellison figures to have a larger role after rushing for just 113 yards last year for the Deacs (but 50 of those came in the bowl game). Wake could stand to develop some depth at receiver as well. A candidate to take another step is 6-foot-5 A.T. Perry, who collected 15 catches, 211 yards, and a score in ’20. Wake also needs to get more out of its tight ends. Brandon Chapman and Blake Whiteheart combined for just 10 catches a year ago.

The Demon Deacons’ defense was pretty much middle of the pack in the ACC last year in points allowed, run defense, and pass defense, though it did tie for second with 13 picks. It finished next to last in sacks. Clawson said the secondary was decimated by injuries and COVID contact-tracing, so he definitely expects a leap for the pass D, and if that happens, sacks should tick up as well.

Punter Ivan Mora returns after ranking near the bottom of the conference in yards per punt.

Summary Thoughts: Virginia has lost four straight to the Demon Deacons. This should definitely be its best chance to beat Wake in the Bronco Mendenhall era. In 2016, the Cavaliers were just bad, and the Deacons won in Winston-Salem, 27-20. Last year, also on the road, Brennan Armstrong was out, so that hampered Virginia’s ability to get a victory. If he’s healthy, UVa should have a good shot back in Charlottesville, where it is 18-2 since 2018.

Hartman is a good, solid QB, but Virginia can beat him. Clawson is a solid coach, and Wake will always be a tough opponent with him there. The Deacons have been a model of consistency since 2016, alternating seven and eight wins per season until last year’s 4-4 regular-season mark that turned into a 4-5 overall record with the bowl loss. Wake Forest is never going to be an opponent that really gets the juices flowing. For instance, Wake has been more consistent recently than Florida State, but which name jumps off the screen at you? Remember the 2019 game against FSU? The problem is that Wake is actually … well, a problem for UVa. It is a smart, disciplined team that just doesn’t beat itself. It has equal or not-as-good talent as UVa. So though the Deacs may not fire up the players or fans, maybe they should because they own the series recently. This is another matchup Virginia needs to win to have a special season.

Win Confidence (1 to 10): 5.5