Weeks 1 and 2 are in the books with convincing home wins over William & Mary and Illinois, and now it’s time to take a quick look back at the takeaways from around the league thus far and evaluate both the coming week and remaining road ahead:

Quick Hit Thoughts Of The Week

After a slow start vs the Tribe, where the UVA offense put up only a field goal in the first quarter, it was nice to see UVA come roaring out of the gate vs the Illini with two quick touchdowns on its two first drives. The Hoos’ attacked downfield in an aggressive but uncomplicated manner, avoiding the unproductive gadgetry that kept UVA from finding a rhythm in those early Week 1 drives.

Of course, the gadgetry did return with its four-headed monster of athletic past/current QBs (Brennan along with backup Ira Armstead and Football Players [FBPs] Keytaon Thompson and Jacob Rodriguez). Eventually in the W&M game Anae was able to get that gadgetry on track, with all three KT, Armstead, and Rodriguez finding success as ball-carriers. The three combined for 13 carries for 128 yards, but that was against a rusty FCS defense (the Tribe played only 3 games in a COVID-shortened 2020). When we tried to run similar action against the Illini, a B1G defense now under the leadership of the legendary Bret Bielema, we saw a lot less productivity. Thompson, a veteran, was able to navigate the Illinois defense a few times and ended up averaging 6 ypc with a score, but Ira went backwards more often than not, and both misfired on their pass attempts (as did rookie Jay Woolfolk).

It nearly ruined UVA’s 3rd drive as Ira first got tackled for a 4 yard loss and then couldn’t find the first down sticks on a reverse on 3rd down. On the fourth drive a fake reverse to KT on 3rd and 6 didn’t fool the defense at all.

At least the Dontayvion Wicks pass attempt to Brennan Armstrong netted 18 yards. But even that, on a reverse that started in the hands of Jacob Rodriguez, was ugly, nearly blown up in the backfield and Wicks’ pass a bit wobbly; a better defense would’ve snuffed that out for a loss or even a turnover.

The tailbacks were productive, combining for 85 yards on 19 carries against a defense that, per Bielema in the postgame presser, was focused on stopping the run as an overarching game strategy.

And ultimately, per Bronco in the postgame presser, that was UVA’s hope with the gadgetry. By creating so many diverse looks in the running game, it arguably forced the defense to commit additional defenders to the box, which then opened up the defensive backfield for an effective vertical passing game.

Otherwise the defense had some solid numbers. 3 sacks including two to kill the Illini’s 2-minute drill at the end of the first half and preserve UVA’s two-score halftime lead. 6 overall TFLs to go with 7 defended passes, an INT (Anthony Johnson) and a forced fumble (Grant and Ahern) with recovery (West Weeks). Illinois QB Artur Sitkowski totaled only 221 yards on 45 attempts, a very mediocre 4.9 ypa (Brennan averaged 11.3 ypa). The Illini running backs fared moderately better, 114 yards on 20 handoffs, so something to focus on in practice, especially if we’re going to be playing with more DBs on the field.

Of course, after that second Illinois TD to start the 2nd half, making the game a competitive 21-14 at the time, UVA’s defense stayed in shutdown mode the rest of the afternoon as the offense put the game away.

Feeling the need to somewhat add some context; Illinois is a bad football team. They went 2-6 last year, which saw Lovie Smith fired, and are still going through growing pains under 1st year coach Bielema. Yes they beat Nebraska to start they year (a Week 0 game), but that says more about Nebraska than anything else. Illinois lost at home to UTSA before coming to Charlottesville, so the 10.5 point spread in UVA’s favor was a little obviously low in hindsight. Don’t get me wrong, a 4-TD margin of victory over a P5 team is impressive under any circumstance, but given how strong UVA’s been at home anyways in recent years, probably need to take this win with a grain of salt.

Hoos’ first real test of the season is upon us in a road trip to Chapel Hill this Saturday night. Heels started the season as Coastal favorites but lost at VT in Week 1, so this is a Must Win for them to maintain their hopes. Their ranking is probably still too high… they’re struggling to replace a number of key members of last year’s Orange Bowl team on both sides of the ball… but that doesn’t mean they’re still not dangerous. Sam Howell is still a real threat.

As good as UVA has looked in two weeks, there are still things to clean up. First and foremost is special teams, where we saw a couple penalties to go with two missed field goals (one a relative chip shot). Second is probably a need to dial back Armstead’s involvement; I’m okay with the Keytaon gadget stuff, he’s proven, but the three young QBs all need some more time to be ready for meaningful snaps. I want to see some better run defense from the safeties as well, and we’ve yet to really see if our DBs are up to a major test from a proven quarterback like they’ll see this week.

But UVA’s not lost to UNC since Bronco’s initial 2-10 season in 2016, and as long as UVA doesn’t beat itself (turnovers, penalties, missed tackles, special teams miscues), there’s no reason UVA can’t win as a road underdog this weekend as well.

VirginiaSportsTV Highlights

First Year Playing Tracker

Offense

Defense

Depth Chart Moves

The new #UVA depth chart for UNC week: pic.twitter.com/y1aiVo4gna

— Damon Dillman (@DamonDillman) September 13, 2021

Literally zero change to the depth chart this week, not even to the OR’s, not even at Special Teams (lucky you, Justin Duenkel). No reason to change much at this stage, of course, given two straight blowouts, so long as everyone is staying healthy. At the same time, this could also be a matter of Bronco trying to do as little as necessary that could tip his hand to UNC about lineups, strategy, or availability of key players.

Coastal Power Rankings

1. Pittsburgh (Prev: 4) – 2-0 (0-0) – Rankings aside, I think Pitt’s win at Tennessee (over former VT QB Hendon Hooker!) was the best win of the Coastal teams so far this season. Not that UT is the powerhouse of years past, but they’ve got some talent. Pitt won a 41-34 shootout after surviving an early 10-0 deficit, and will likely stay undefeated before going to VT on Oct 16th, facing Western Michigan and New Hampshire the next two weekends.

2. Virginia Tech (Prev: 3) – 2-0 (1-0) – Tech looked sluggish in the first half against Middle Tennessee State, leading by only a touchdown going into the half. But they shook off the malaise in the second half and went up 35-7 before allowing a garbage time MTSU score. The UNC win over Labor Day weekend continues to be the only conference win in the Coastal. They have an intriguing road trip to West Virginia this Saturday.

3. Virginia (Prev: 5) – 2-0 (0-0) – Virginia has looked sharp over the first two weeks when not getting too cute with its play calling. Illinois is a bad team for the B1G, they did also lose to UTSA after all, but the 4-TD margin of victory still makes it a nice win, especially knowing it could’ve been even more. We’ll learn a lot more about this team starting this weekend, with six ACC games over the next six weeks.

4. North Carolina (Prev: 1) – 1-1 (0-1) – UNC stays ranked based upon its preseason hype, but it wasn’t very impressive in being shut down by Virginia Tech in Week 1. Beating Georgia State 59-17 tells us nothing. If they can beat UVA on Saturday, to whom they’ve lost 4 straight times, it’ll make them worthy of reclaiming some stature.

5. Miami (Prev: 2) – 1-1 (0-0) – I’m looking a little foolish from my preseason prediction that Miami could run away with the Coastal after seeing them struggle to survive Appalachian State 25-23 on Saturday, needing the Mountaineers to drop passes on their final drive to fall short in the upset. I also expected the ‘Canes to be more competitive than the 44-13 spread in their Week 1 ‘Bama loss. They’re the favorite against Michigan State on Saturday, but they’ve got a lot to prove at the moment.

6. Georgia Tech (Prev: 6) – 1-1 (0-0) – We thought GT might start to show some marked improvement this season under 3rd year coach Geoff Collins, but opening up the season with a 1-point home loss to Northern Illinois was an ominous start. A blowout over Kennesaw State this past week is meaningless. Their pass offense still needs to come a long way, but likely will hit another roadblock at Clemson this week before welcoming UNC, two of the six ranked teams on their remaining schedule.

7. Duke (Prev: 7) – 1-1 (0-0) – Any remaining shine on the Cutcliffe era at Duke was spoiled in their Week 1 loss at Charlotte. NC A&T was a layup, and they padded their schedule with two of the worst P5 peers in Northwestern and Kansas the next two weeks. But at this point if Duke can’t beat GT on October 9th, it’s likely another year at the bottom of the Coastal for the Devils.

Non-UVA Games to Watch this Weekend

Virginia plays at 7:30 PM on Saturday, the only prime time Saturday ACC game, which means we’ve got the rest of the day to catch up on the rest of the league. A few teams are working through their buy-game scrubs still this weekend, but still some great games both within the conference and around D-1:

Friday

UCF (-6.5) at Louisville – 7:30 PM Eastern – ESPN: Fresh off their invite to the Big XII, G5 powerhouse UCF hits the road to Louisville to take on UVA’s cross-division rival. The Knights enter as one-touchdown favorites, while Louisville is looking for a confidence-building win after starting with a tough neutral loss to Ole Miss and a meaningless route of Eastern Kentucky.

Saturday

#15 VT (+3.0) at WVU – 12:00 PM Eastern – Fox Sports 1: Great start to the Saturday ACC slate as the Hokies take on old Big East rival WVU in Morgantown. Hokies, although ranked, opened as 3-point underdogs, and will look to cement themselves as Coastal frontrunners with their 2nd statement win of the season.

Michigan State (+6.5) at #24 Miami – 12:00 PM Eastern – ABC: Miami’s clinging to its Top 25 ranking and the Spartans will see blood in the water after Appalachian State nearly won in Hard Rock. MSU’s beaten Northwestern and Youngstown State so far, but this is a big test for a Miami team that needs to regain confidence before starting its conference slate.

FSU (+6.5) at Wake Forest – 3:30 PM Eastern – ESPN: UVA plays the Demon Deacons next weekend, and this will be Wake’s first matchup of note after two easy wins over ODU and Norfolk State. That said, FSU may be the worst team in the Atlantic after losing to Jacksonville State this past weekend, so Wake may still win this one without giving too much of its playbook away.

#1 Alabama (-15.5) at #11 Florida – 3:30 PM Eastern – CBS: The SEC is giving us a great early matchup between the Tide and the Gators. Wouldn’t surprise me to see Florida keep this one close; double-digit home underdogs cover more often than not, and one might question the magnitude of Bama’s blowout of Miami after seeing the ‘Canes struggle vs Appy State in Week 2.

#22 Auburn (+6.0) at #10 Penn State – 7:30 PM Eastern – ABC: Looking for something to flip over to during UVA-UNC breaks? The non-conference slate gives us another great matchup between ranked teams. The Tigers have put up 60 points in back to back weeks (vs Akron and Alabama State) while Penn State already has an impressive win at Wisconsin to go with a Ball State blowout.

The Remaining Schedule

Sat, Sept 18 – at #21 North Carolina: Win confidence 6 – We’re on the road against a ranked team, and UVA’s struggled in road games outside the 2019 season. But UVA’s had Carolina’s number, and Bronco’s been beating Mack since they were at BYU and Texas, respectively, so I’m thinking UVA could be a sneaky favorite here.

Fri, Sept 24 – Wake Forest: Win confidence 6 – Wake’s a quietly competent program under Dave Clawson, and could arguably be the 2nd best program in the Atlantic Division this season. What may give us the edge is that Wake’s first 3 games were all in Winston-Salem and all against bad teams (sorry, FSU, but it’s true). Coming on the road to play at Scott against a UVA team toughened up against Carolina 6 days prior, and Virginia should be a prohibitive favorite in what otherwise should be a great game.

Thurs, Sept 30 – at #24 Miami: Win confidence 5 – I want to make UVA the favorite here after watching Miami look remarkably inconsistent against Appalachian State on Saturday night. But UVA’s consistently struggled against Miami’s speed in recent years, especially when in South Florida.

Sat, Oct 9 – at Louisville: Win confidence 6 – The Cards’ offense doesn’t look particularly threatening yet, putting up less than 350 yards against Ole Miss and scoring a relatively unimpressive 30 vs Eastern Kentucky; UVA’s defense should hold. Their defense did keep EKU out of the endzone, but Matt Corral at Ole Miss lit them up, so Brennan should be able to move the sticks as well. As long as UVA plays a clean game, we can get a road W here.

Sat, Oct 16 – Duke: Win confidence 9 – This is the easiest pick of the remaining schedule; Duke couldn’t win at Charlotte, they’re not likely to win in Charlottesville. Bronco’s owned Cutcliffe since he came to UVA, and this is one of the few matchups where UVA’s got the obvious talent advantages at most every position.

Sat, Oct 23 – Georgia Tech: Win confidence 8 – GT will need to beat someone competent before we upgrade this, as for now we’re still basing this on their flat performance in a loss to Northern Illinois. Their advantage here? They get a bye week before traveling to Charlottesville.

Sat, Oct 30 – at #23 Brigham Young: Win confidence 5 – BYU is learning to live without last year’s breakout star QB Zach Wilson. But so far, so good as they sit 2-0 with both wins over Pac-12 teams. Beating Arizona in Week 1 wasn’t much to brag about, the Wildcats are a bottom-tier P5 team. But they beat a solid Utah in the Holy War game on Saturday. This is a program playing with a chip on its shoulder right now, and the ‘Hoos could struggle in the thin, mountain air as the Cougars take it personally against their old coach.

BYE WEEK

Sat, Nov 13 – #12 Notre Dame: Win confidence 4 – Notre Dame’s week 1 battle with FSU (41-38 in OT at Tallahassee) is looking a little like a red flag after FSU promptly lost to Jacksonville State, and the Irish just barely beat Toledo (32-29 in South Bend). The Irish are still a ranked team, but they’re starting a real gauntlet this week vs Purdue followed by four currently-ranked teams over the following five games (and the fifth is Southern Cal). This is looking a little more winnable for the moment.

Sat, Nov 20 – at Pittsburgh: Win confidence 5 – Pitt looked capable in their win at Tennessee. Their offense is a little predictable, and their defense still working in some new faces, but they still look like they’re going to be in the thick of things for the Coastal come November. It’ll be a tough road game for the Hoos.

Sat, Nov 27- #15 Virginia Tech: Win confidence 5 – Tech hasn’t looked perfect through two weeks but they’ve at least looked improved vs last season. This, as usual, should be a toss-up game.

Predicted final record: 8-4 (5-3)