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Margin of Wins And Losses

Posted on January 11, 2018, in Team by Seattle Hoo.

From 2013-14 through 2017-18 Seasons

Segment Record Marg Wins Marg Losses
Overall 127-31 16.6 7.4
ACC 67-19 12.6 6.1
Road 32-18 12.2 7.2
Top 25 20-18 11.5 7.7

 

2013-14

Segment Record Marg Wins Marg Losses Rank
Overall 30-7 16.6 7.4 15
ACC 19-2 13.5 5.0  
Road 7-4 11.3 12.0  
Top 25 3-4 10.3 5.3  

 

2014-15

Segment Record Marg Wins Marg Losses Rank
Overall 30-4 16.4 4.5 7
ACC 17-3 12.5 4.0  
Road 11-2 13.8 4.0  
Top 25 4-4 8.5 4.5  

 

 2015-16

Segment Record Marg Wins Marg Losses Rank
Overall 29-8 15.1 4.8 16
ACC 15-6 10.1 3.5  
Road 5-6 8.8 3.7  
Top 25 8-2 12.8 3.5  

 

2016-17

Segment Record Marg Wins Marg Losses Rank
Overall 23-11 19.7 10.0 22
ACC 12-8 14.8 9.1  
Road 7-5 11.4 8.8  
Top 25 4-7 12.8 12.3  

 

 2017-18

Segment Record Marg Wins Marg Losses Rank
Overall 15-1 19.3 7.0 10
ACC 4-0 11.5 0.0  
Road 2-1 17.5 7.0  
Top 25 1-1 12.0 7.0  

Thank you to RU Hoo over on TheSabre.Com Message Board for compiling the data in his fascinating post.  What fascinates me the most about this information is the 2016-17 results.  When that team won - and it won plenty in all categories - it tended to win at least as big as the earlier teams did.  But when it lost, unlike the other teams that tended to lose close games, the 2016-17 squad tended to get its doors blown off.

Sharon Cox-Ponder for HOOS Place

RU Hoo posted it for the proposition that "One of the biggest misconceptions of Coach Bennett's teams at Virginia is our pace means the lower scoring games translates to closer games. This is 100% incorrect in Virginia's wins, but mostly correct in their losses." Whether the data proves that hypothesis or not came into debate, but the data does suggest that Virginia's pace is not causing the Cavaliers to have a lot of close games. A quick trip over to TeamRankings.com lets us see that since 2013-14, the Cavaliers worst showing in average margin of victory was 22nd in 2016-17, with a best of 7th in 2014-15.  Currently in 2017-18, UVA ranks 10th in NCAA Division I in average margin of victory.

Whether a hypothetical faster team at the same efficiency would have a higher margin of victory (mathematically, it would), or Virginia might have a higher margin of victory with a faster pace (debatable), the tables above are at the very least highly suggestive that Virginia's pace is not causing the Cavaliers to have a lot of close games where they are prone to being upset. Another Sabre poster, crossedsabres8, moseyed on over to Kenpom.com and found there that since 2013-14, "We've lost 31 games in that time frame, and 30 of those have been 'A' rank games, according to KenPom (top 50 adjusted for location). The other one was the home loss against Miami last year, which was a 'B' rank game."  Miami was a tournament team last year. With a high average margin of victory and absence of bad losses, the commentator talking point would appear to be utter bunkus - which is not at all surprising, as most commentator talking points are utter bunkus.