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2018 Bowl Projections - Week 2

Posted on November 8, 2018, in Football by Karl Hess.

We know that last Friday's rain soaked loss to Pitt impacted the ACC Coastal race. But did dropping that game change the Hoos' projected bowl fortunes too? Join Kendall, MaizeAndBlueWahoo, and myself on our latest tour of the college football postseason landscape to find out.

College Football Playoff

Karl

Cotton Bowl: 1 Alabama vs 4 Michigan

Orange Bowl: 2 Clemson vs 3 Notre Dame

Holding steady this week. Notre Dame's game against Syracuse is looming large.

Kendall

Cotton Bowl: 1 Alabama vs 4 Michigan

Orange Bowl: 2 Clemson vs 3 Notre Dame

I might have been wrong about both Michigan and UCF last week. Course correcting this week. UVA fans should be rooting hard for Clemson and Notre Dame to both remain undefeated --- ACC revenue sharing, y'all!

Maize

Orange Bowl: 1 Alabama vs 4 Notre Dame

Cotton Bowl: 2 Michigan vs 3 Clemson

No change this week. People wonder if the Domers might be on shaky ground, but Michigan had trouble with Northwestern too, before embarking on a four-game domination stretch.

Other New Year's Six

Maize

Sugar Bowl: LSU vs West Virginia

Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs Washington State

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs Kentucky

Peach Bowl: Georgia vs UCF

Honestly, Kentucky is kind of a lukewarm choice for the last NY6 slot. But so are the teams below them.

Karl

Sugar Bowl: LSU vs Oklahoma

Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs Washington State

Fiesta Bowl: West Virginia vs Georgia

Peach Bowl: NC State vs UCF

The intrigue here is what happens when three 10-2 teams are on the board in NC State, Kentucky, and West Virginia. With one SEC team in the playoff and two others already in the NY6 with Georgia and LSU, Kentucky is left on the outside looking in.

Kendall

Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs Oklahoma

Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs Washington State

Fiesta Bowl: LSU vs UCF

Peach Bowl: West Virginia vs Kentucky

A 10-win NC State *could* be a candidate for the Peach or Fiesta, but I'm not optimistic enough to suggest that the ACC could land three teams in the NY6 even though I think the Wolfpack would probably be a better pick than a 10-win Kentucky.

ACC Bowls

Camping World Bowl

Kendall

NC State vs Iowa State

10-win NC State is one of, if not THE best non-NY6 profiles available for the rank-n-file bowls. Camping World is going to be very happy with its choices here.

Maize

NC State vs Iowa State

It’s kind of a good thing NC State beat BC, because it gives the CW Bowl a good excuse to take the closer team.  Yes, I know what Syracuse did to the Pack, but closer matters to bowl execs trying to sell tickets.

Karl

Syracuse vs Iowa State

Two of the bigger surprise teams with two of the best unheralded coaches in college football make this an interesting game. With games left against Notre Dame and Boston College, Cuse has a chance to make a longshot push to the NY6 level as well.

TIER ONE ACC BOWLS

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl/Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

Karl

Boston College vs Mississippi State (Music City Bowl)

No change for me this week but if BC runs the table to include wins over Clemson and Syracuse, things could get interesting for the Eagles and messy for the rest of the ACC.

Kendall

Boston College vs Mississippi State (Gator Bowl)

I’m thinking BC gets to 9 wins after winning the head-to-head against Syracuse on Nov. 24th. As such, they get the Nashville/Jax nod over the Orange.

Maize

Boston College vs Mississippi State (Music City Bowl)

Yeah, this still makes sense.

Belk Bowl

Maize

Virginia vs South Carolina

UVA has packed that stadium twice.  A while ago to be sure, but the bowl officials will not have forgotten.

Karl

Duke vs South Carolina

UVA’s loss to Pitt bumps the Hoos from Charlotte. And it won’t make much sense to send Pitt to Charlotte for this game after participating in the ACC Championship Game a few weeks prior. Enter Duke who quietly turns in an 8 win season. The Gamecocks will sell the tickets to this regional matchup.

Kendall

Syracuse vs South Carolina

Now all the way up to #13 in both polls, Cuse is one of the feel good stories of 2018. A home date against Notre Dame and a trip to BC loom down the stretch, however. 7-2 now, 8-4 to end the season… and firmly in the ACC’s #5 slot behind Clemson, ND, NC State, and BC. That lands them in Charlotte, much to UVA’s chagrin. (This is the bowl and opponent I’m really hoping for us to land.)

Hyundai Sun Bowl

Kendall

Virginia vs Oregon

I think we finish the regular season at either 7-5 or 8-4, behind both BC and Syracuse in the unspoken “ACC prestige ranking” of the 2018 season. (Shitting the bed against Pitt was really bad timing.) All the same, if we can win one of the GT/VT games, we can get to 8 wins and challenge Syracuse for that spot in Charlotte. That should be the main hope for Wahoo fans down the stretch.

Maize

Pitt vs Stanford

I’m being a little contrary on purpose, admittedly.  But after you put everyone everywhere else, Pitt just kind of falls here, for little other reason than nobody else did.

Karl

Virginia vs Stanford

On the surface, the Sun Bowl is more prestigious than the Pinstripe Bowl, so the Hoos should feel okay about that. And the weather will certainly be better than last year’s Military Bowl. 

But as a trip for the fans? Ehh, not so much. I’m fairly certain that the Sun Bowl doesn’t anticipate large travel parties from east coast schools, so no one will be surprised if the Hoos don’t pack the stands in El Paso.

A matchup with Stanford and Bryce Love could be fun. UVA football fan loves to dream about the Hoos resembling Stanford as a program. Here’s a chance to watch the Cardinal up close and personal.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Karl

Pitt vs Purdue

I had convinced myself that the Hoos were destined for New York City and the Pinstripe Bowl after losing to Pitt. Then I started working my way through these projections and arrived at a dilemma.

Could the ACC legitimately reward the ACC Coastal winner Pitt by sending them to El Paso when a spot in New York City was available? Then I laughed for a good five minutes realizing that was the type of “reward” only reserved for UVA football from the ACC league office.

Pitt gets the easy trip for their fanbase instead. They also get a decent regional matchup against Purdue. This could be a pretty entertaining game as both teams have shown a penchant for scoring.

Kendall

Pittsburgh vs Purdue

Yeah, this is a slam dunk for all involved. I’ll echo Karl’s thoughts.

Maize

Syracuse vs Michigan State

My compatriots have pointed out during our marathon war-room sessions that Cuse plays Notre Dame in Yankee Stadium and the organizers might not want the same team in the same stadium twice.  But Syracuse wants to be New York City’s team, so I’m not 100% convinced they don’t want to come back.  The Pinstripe people get a solid Big Ten team that they’ve never had before and a high-level matchup, and they’re OK with that.

Additional Bowls (Formerly Tier Two)

These are listed in bowl selection order.

Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman

Maize

Duke vs Temple

Mid-level nobility vs. a house of worship.  Who will triumph in the Snooty Name Bowl?

Karl

Virginia Tech vs Cincinnati

The Military gets a good team in Cincinnati and a team they expect to sell tickets in the Hokies. The AAC would love to match the Bearcats against VT because it’s a great chance for them to pick up a win against a Power 5 team.

Kendall

Miami vs Temple

Remember when Miami was 5-1 and ranked #16? I don’t either. They better pull it together down the stretch (@GT, @VT, vs. Pitt) or they could find themselves at 5-7 and out of the postseason altogether. I’m betting they find one win out of those three games and make it to a bowl at 6-6.

Walk-On's Independence Bowl

Kendall

Virginia Tech vs UAB

Southern Miss might save the Hokies’ bacon. I wonder how much Tech is paying this potential rent-an-opponent in order to keep their bowl streak intact?

Maize

Virginia Tech vs Memphis

I’m stealing Karl’s idea from last week and better yet I’m putting the teams in Shreveport (where I had the Tigers last week anyway.)

Karl

Georgia Tech vs Tulane

I think Georgia Tech will finish strong enough to avoid a trip to Detroit. Tulane gets to six wins and fills the second spot in the bowl for the SEC. This matchup might be regional enough to sell some tickets in Shreveport. Tulane will certainly be excited to make their third bowl this century.

Quick Lane Bowl

Karl

Miami vs Eastern Michigan

Miami’s bowl resume took a major blow with a home loss to Duke. At this point, a 6 win Miami team isn’t attractive to anyone but the Quick Lane Bowl takes them due to contractual reasons.

For the B1G, Maryland needs just one more win to become bowl eligible and this would be their spot if they get there. The Terps are facing a probable elimination game at Indiana this weekend. Karma continues to turn its nose up at the Terps so they’ll lose and ultimately be stuck on 5 wins to finish the season.

Enter the MAC to bail out the B1G. After the conference fills its bowl slots, Eastern Michigan is a logical take for the Quick Lane Bowl. They’ll probably sell a decent amount of tickets, relatively speaking, to see the local team take on The U.

Kendall

Georgia Tech vs Indiana

Send that gawd-awful triple option to Siberia to play a bowl game. Sounds like a good plan. Go Hoosiers.

Maize

Georgia Tech vs Maryland

Siberia my ass.  This game is indoors.  Also Indiana is about as likely as Wake Forest to get bowl eligible so there.  We’ll let the Terps deal with chop-block heaven on the nice, warm, lush green FieldTurf.

Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl

Maize

Miami vs South Florida

Going from ranked to underdog in the Naughty Boyz Sarsaparilla Bowl (did I get it right?) is a sad-trombone season if there ever was one.

Karl

N/A

I'm out of eligible ACC teams since I promoted NC State up to the NY6. But as far as lower tier bowl games go, the ACC needs to bump this game up a bit next time bowl contracts are up for negotiation. The game is now in Tampa at the Bucs' stadium. Fix the conference opposition and you have a nice trip in December instead of sending an ACC team to Detroit, El Paso, Annapolis, New York City, or Shreveport.

Kendall

Duke vs Cincinnati

7-win Duke leapfrogged by three 6-6 ACC teams. So sad. However, Gasparilla > Independence and/or Quick Lane, so it’s a happy ending for the Blue Devils. Cincy is also a beefier opponent than any of Indiana, UAB, or Temple.

Weekly Rant Courtesy of Kendall & MaizeAndBlueWahoo

Kendall

Meanwhile, here are some schools I’m surprised - and in some cases, delighted - to also see fail to become bowl eligible:

-- Navy

-- Kansas State

-- Nebraska

-- UCLA

But most of the surprises are in the ACC, in the form of FSU and Louisville. Traditional powers, my ass.

Maize

Nobody left in the ACC, so it’s time for Maize’s Bowl Rant of the Week which is sort of about the Pinstripe Bowl but more about northern bowls in general, i.e., there shouldn’t be any.  OK, the Motor City Bowl is fun and I’ve been I think like three times, in one case because I won free tickets because the Lions scored a touchdown and my seat was called and I got four tix.  But that’s kind of the point.  The Lions score touchdowns with relative frequency, which means a lot of free tickets get handed out.  See, fans in the north, if they travel for bowl games, want to go somewhere warm for a couple days.  And fans in the south think the north has the plague for six months and won’t go anywhere near a snowflake.  And in New York, your game is like the 500th most important thing happening in town that day.  The locals don’t give a damn.  When I go to a bowl game I like to do things like blow the day playing mini-golf.  Which means when it comes down to it, I’d rather go to Shreveport.  Bowls - at least, the non-glamorous ones - should be in smallish southern cities, not huge metropolises with NFL stadiums.  Someone get Charleston, South Carolina on the line immediately and line them up.  Who wouldn’t want to spend a couple days in Charleston?  The Citadel’s stadium holds 21,000 and it’s due for an expansion.  That’s plenty.

 

 

 

 

This article contains the tags:

Football, 2018 Bowls