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Men's basketball practice began this past Monday. The national pundits began issuing their punditry before that. From the time that the roster took shape late last spring, I have had a much higher estimation of its potential than the national consensus. Finally, Tony has put together a relatively complete roster with depth, talent in all positional groups, and a robust skill set. For the first time since the Championship year, Virginia has a men's team that should reach the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, and has the potential to extend the season one weekend past that. Anything less than the Sweet Sixteen will leave me disappointed.

Most published analysts appear to take last season's roster, look at who left and what their stats were, then look at the offseason additions, set some kind of expectation for those players, and come up with a prediction. I don't follow that methodology. I just look at this year's roster. Look at film, look at stats, evaluate the talents and skill sets of the players and how they should translate to Tony's system, then come up with a set of questions and expectations.

My expectations are high for this roster because it has some game-breaking talent and no critical skill holes. The 2020-21 team had - amazingly - three NBA players on it but was deeply flawed because of ballhandling and scoring deficits in the backcourt, and some crippling defensive limitations. Despite some great shooting and individual skills, it had exploitable matchups, and those deficits and matchups combined with a substandard coaching performance to kneecap the season.

Last season ...  well, we won't talk about how last season ended.

Moving On

My evaluation of the team's prospects is based on some assessments:

Andrew Rohde's game translates to the ACC. I see a lot of Ty Jerome in his film.

Dante Harris is strictly a backup point guard except in specific game situations.

Isaac McKneely hunts his shot with the knowledge that any room-and-rhythm iMac Three is the best shot we can get regardless of shot clock or personnel.

One of Leon Bond and Elijah Gertrude is ready to contribute.

Jordan Minor gains basic competence in the Packline quickly.

Sides will not be the predominant offensive set.

On Wings of Eagles

When De'Andre Hunter, Ty Jerome and Kyle Guy all left school early after The Championship, it devastated the Cavaliers' perimeter talent, leaving a crater that could not be filled for five years. Because the NCAA Tournament is so guard-driven, that crater left the program unsuited for Tournament success. No blame in that, just reality. Coach Tony Bennett and staff did everything they could to fill the crater, successfully recruiting the best options they could get. Some were not quite talented enough; some never developed; others were horribly overrated as prospects. The program was left with a situation where a flawed, limited two-point guard backcourt was their best option, because they never had more than one P5-level wing and you need at least two. The team had a dearth of three-point shooting and/or individual shot-creation in the backcourt. Frontcourt shooting is great, but ultimately requires backcourt play to get it the ball in good places.

That situation promises to be different this year. Rohde and McKneely bring the best combination of shot-making and own-shot-creating Virginia has had since Jerome and Guy, while Bond and Gertrude bring a potential to attack the rim with credible outside shooting. For the first time since 2019, the Hoos fly into battle with wings who threaten ACC defenses.

What about Ryan Dunn? Why have I not talked about Virginia's second most hyped NBA prospect? Because I see Dunn anchoring Bennett's post rotation. While he will probably see some time at the three when Bennett wants Jake Groves or Blake Buchanan on the floor with Jordan Minor, history and ability suggest Dunn will spend the bulk of his time at the 4. He will likely play as many minutes at the 5 as at the 3 - if not more.

I am not unique in seeing shades of Jerome in Rohde, nor would I be alone if I were to compare McKneely to Guy. The resemblances are there in both cases - especially in the types of shots they will create or get, and the roles they can be expected to play. The biggest difference is that Rohde will not be a primary point guard like Jerome was. Think of the times when Kihei Clark was in with Guy and Jerome, and that should be a good forecast of the roles Rohde and McKneely will play.

My excitement for this season rests on the offensive potential of the Reece Beekman-McKneely-Rohde perimeter trio. Because offense wins in the NCAA Tournament, and especially perimeter offense, this trio gives the Hoos their best chance to advance in five years. I focus on the NCAA Tournament because we can always count on Bennett's teams to achieve a lot in the ACC. The primary variable in how I feel about a season is how they do in the NCAA. Given the ACC schedule this season, it is virtually inconceivable to me that this team will not have an ACC double-bye. Expectations will be high in March.

Will Rohde's game translate to the ACC? This brilliant analysis on Cuts From the Corner reinforces my intuition that it will, that we can expect him to be a threat to go off in any game. With him and Beekman on the floor together, the Hoos will have two players who can transition from defense to offense with the dribble or the pass, and two players who can create a shot with the dribble at any point in the shot clock.

Will McKneely be a shot hunter? His freshman campaign suggests he will. As a freshman, McKneely put the three-ball up more frequently than Kyle Guy did as a freshman (iMac every 5.5 minutes on the floor vs. Guy every 6.2), and more frequently than Joe Harris ever did as a Hoo (every 5.9 minutes as a freshman and senior). Guy cut that number to 5.2 as a sophomore. I would love to see McKneely have the same 1 point drop and put up a shot every 4.5 minutes on the floor (Guy shot every 4.8 minutes in his last season).

Will Dante Harris be strictly a backup point guard except in limited situations? A lot of that depends on what Bennett wants on the floor. If the questions about Rohde and McKneely above are answered "yes" - and in Bennett's career the vast majority of those types of questions have been answered "yes" - then it would be a coaching mistake to use Beekman and Harris together for any substantial minutes. Bennett chose to play Clark and Jerome together; he had no choice but to play Clark and Beekman together. The former pairing was quite complementary with a well-rounded skill set and role set; the latter was duplicative with major holes in the skill set and very little variation in effective roles. Beekman-Harris is far more Clark-Beekman than Clark-Jerome. I love Harris (I loved Clark); I look forward to seeing him start next year. My objection is all about overall skill sets and role-blending.

Will one of Bond and Gertrude be ready to contribute? I don't know, but both were consensus top-75 recruits and both have the physical and mental gifts, so I am going to expect a "yes." They don't need to be stars. They don't need to score double digits. They just need to be effective as a fourth or fifth option. I feel pretty damn good about that.

Will Sides be the predominant offensive set? With Bennett, it is always a danger. He hates ball screens the way he hates the color orange. Sides is a very good situational offense and it has a place in the system, but the Hoos will be better in a more spread formation that lets Beekman be the traditional ball-dominant lead guard. I do expect to see a more varied offensive game plan this year.

But what about defense? I refer you back to "offense wins in the NCAA Tournament." Nevertheless, I will talk defense in some depth in part two, when I get to the frontcourt.